Predictive validity of the Undergraduate Medicine and Health Sciences Admission Test for medical students' academic performance.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the predictive validity of the Undergraduate Medicine and Health Sciences Admission Test (UMAT) for academic performance at university.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We studied all 339 students who entered medical study at the School of Medicine, University of Queensland, directly from high school, between 2005 and 2009.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

UMAT scores before entry compared with grade point averages (GPAs) during university study.

RESULTS

Mean overall UMAT score at entry was 60/100 and mean GPA during university study was 6.1 (range, 1-7), with a correlation coefficient of 0.15 (P = 0.005). This relationship existed only in the first year of university study. For UMAT Section 1 score, the correlation coefficient was 0.14 (P = 0.01); for UMAT Section 2, the correlation coefficient was 0.06 (P = 0.29); and for UMAT Section 3, the correlation coefficient was 0.09 (P = 0.11). UMAT overall score for men (60.2) and women (59.8), and GPA for men (6.1) and women (6.2) were similar. However, men performed better in Section 1 (mean score 61.6 v 61; P = 0.05) and Section 3 (63.2 v 60.7; P < 0.001), whereas women performed better in Section 2 (58.5 v 55.8; P = 0.009). In multivariate analysis, only correlation between GPA and UMAT Section 1 score remained significant but was weak and lasted for 1 year of university study.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that UMAT has limited predictive validity for academic performance.