Biological and Experimental Psychology Group, School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom.
PLoS One. 2011 Mar 30;6(3):e18239. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0018239.
One of the hallmarks of the human species is our capacity for cumulative culture, in which beneficial knowledge and technology is accumulated over successive generations. Yet previous analyses of cumulative cultural change have failed to consider the possibility that as cultural complexity accumulates, it becomes increasingly costly for each new generation to acquire from the previous generation. In principle this may result in an upper limit on the cultural complexity that can be accumulated, at which point accumulated knowledge is so costly and time-consuming to acquire that further innovation is not possible. In this paper I first review existing empirical analyses of the history of science and technology that support the possibility that cultural acquisition costs may constrain cumulative cultural evolution. I then present macroscopic and individual-based models of cumulative cultural evolution that explore the consequences of this assumption of variable cultural acquisition costs, showing that making acquisition costs vary with cultural complexity causes the latter to reach an upper limit above which no further innovation can occur. These models further explore the consequences of different cultural transmission rules (directly biased, indirectly biased and unbiased transmission), population size, and cultural innovations that themselves reduce innovation or acquisition costs.
人类的一个特点是具有累积文化的能力,即有益的知识和技术可以在连续的几代人中积累。然而,之前对累积文化变化的分析未能考虑到这样一种可能性,即随着文化复杂性的积累,每一代从前代获取文化的成本都会越来越高。从原则上讲,这可能会导致可积累的文化复杂性达到上限,在这种情况下,积累的知识获取成本如此之高,以至于进一步的创新变得不可能。在本文中,我首先回顾了现有的关于科学技术历史的实证分析,这些分析支持了文化获取成本可能限制累积文化进化的可能性。然后,我提出了累积文化进化的宏观和个体基础模型,探索了这种文化获取成本变化的假设的后果,表明使获取成本随文化复杂性而变化会导致后者达到上限,超过这个上限就无法再进行创新。这些模型进一步探讨了不同的文化传播规则(直接偏向、间接偏向和无偏向传播)、种群规模以及本身会降低创新或获取成本的文化创新的后果。