Vered Y, Zini A, Mann J
Dept. of Community Dentistry, The Hebrew University, Hadassah Faculty of Dental Medicine, Jerusalem.
Refuat Hapeh Vehashinayim (1993). 2010 Jul;27(3):13-7, 60.
A recent study published by the authors indicated that according to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics in 2008, Israel had 5800 active dentists, a figure well below the publication by the Ministry of Health. Based on this figure, using the manpower to population ratio method, the following results were obtained: The predicted number of dentist in 2017 would be 6090, based on, the estimated number of Israel: graduates, the estimated number of dentists who would arrive in Israel as immigrants or Israelis who studied abroad, based on an attrition rate of 3% and on the assumption that the number of dentists leaving the country is negligible. Table 2, based on manpower to population ratio, indicates that by 2017, Israel would have 1 dentist per 1400 population, a ratio which is still far above what many countries present, but high for Israel. This might reflect a dramatic change, from employment in public clinics, back to private practices. The results clearly indicate that a shortage of dentists is predicted in the near future and a major brainstorming is urgently required to evaluate these results.
作者最近发表的一项研究表明，根据以色列中央统计局2008年的数据，以色列有5800名执业牙医，这一数字远低于卫生部公布的数据。基于这一数字，采用人力与人口比率法得出了以下结果：基于以色列的估计人数、毕业生人数、预计作为移民抵达以色列的牙医人数或在国外学习的以色列人人数，按照3%的损耗率，并假设离开该国的牙医人数可忽略不计，预计2017年牙医人数将达到6090人。表2基于人力与人口比率表明，到2017年，以色列每1400人口中将有1名牙医，这一比率仍远高于许多国家的水平，但对以色列来说偏高。这可能反映出从在公共诊所就业到回归私人执业的巨大变化。结果清楚地表明，预计在不久的将来会出现牙医短缺的情况，迫切需要进行一次重大的头脑风暴来评估这些结果。
