Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2012 Jan;140(1):91-9. doi: 10.1017/S0950268811000562. Epub 2011 Apr 14.
Diarrhoeal mortality rates in Mexican children dramatically declined during the 1980s and 1990s, concomitant with a temporal shift in peak deaths from summer to autumn-winter. The spatial dynamics of these patterns have not previously been studied. We first describe the seasonal features of paediatric diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico as a whole, then across individual states. While no geographical gradients in the magnitude of diarrhoeal mortality rates have been detected in recent years, we identified a distinct spatial pattern in the timing of peak mortality rate. In the 1980s the summer peak mortality was earliest around Mexico's capital and later in states to the southeast and northwest. Our results suggest that the direction and timing of those annual waves are related to the mean monthly precipitation and mean daily temperature. This pattern has disintegrated in recent years as the summer peak has diminished.
20 世纪 80 年代至 90 年代期间，墨西哥儿童腹泻死亡率大幅下降，同期夏季儿童死亡峰值也转移到秋冬季节。这些模式的空间动态此前尚未得到研究。我们首先描述了墨西哥整体儿科腹泻死亡率的季节性特征，然后是各个州的季节性特征。虽然近年来没有发现腹泻死亡率的地理梯度，但我们在死亡高峰期的时间上发现了一个明显的空间模式。在 20 世纪 80 年代，首都墨西哥城周边地区夏季死亡高峰期最早，东南部和西北部各州则较晚。我们的研究结果表明，每年波峰的方向和时间与月平均降水量和日平均温度有关。近年来，随着夏季高峰期的减弱，这种模式已经瓦解。
