2008 年至 2010 年中国深圳手足口病的流行病学特征。
Epidemiological features of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Shenzhen, China from 2008 to 2010.
机构信息
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University,Beijing,China.
Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen,China.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 2014 Aug;142(8):1751-62. doi: 10.1017/S0950268813002586. Epub 2013 Oct 21.
This study analysed the spatio-temporal distribution and propagation of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2010. Specifically, we examined the epidemiological data, temporal distribution and spatial distribution, and then the relationship between meteorological, social factors and the number of reported HFMD cases was analysed using Spearman's rank correlation. Finally, a geographically weighted regression model was constructed for the number of reported HFMD cases in 2009. It was found that three independent variables, i.e. the number of reported HFMD cases in 2008 and, annual average temperature and precipitation, had different spatial impacts on the number of reported HFMD cases in 2009. In addition, these variables accounted for the propagation mechanism of HFMD in the centre and east of Shenzhen, where the high incidence rate areas are located. These results will be of great help in understanding the spatio-temporal distribution of HFMD and developing approaches to prevent this disease.
本研究分析了 2008 年至 2010 年深圳手足口病（HFMD）的时空分布和传播情况。具体来说，我们检查了流行病学数据、时间分布和空间分布，然后使用 Spearman 秩相关分析了气象、社会因素与报告 HFMD 病例数之间的关系。最后，构建了 2009 年报告 HFMD 病例数的地理加权回归模型。结果发现，三个独立变量，即 2008 年报告 HFMD 病例数、年平均温度和降水量，对 2009 年报告 HFMD 病例数具有不同的空间影响。此外，这些变量解释了深圳中心和东部地区（高发地区所在位置）HFMD 的传播机制。这些结果将有助于了解 HFMD 的时空分布，并制定预防该疾病的方法。
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