Rosychuk Rhonda J, Klassen Terry P, Voaklander Donald C, Senthilselvan Ambikaipakan, Rowe Brian H
Department of Pediatrics, niversity of Alberta, 9423 Aberhart Centre, 11402 University Ave NW, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2J3.
Pediatr Emerg Care. 2011 Apr;27(4):256-60. doi: 10.1097/PEC.0b013e31821314b0.
Croup is a common pediatric respiratory illness presenting to the emergency department (ED) in the fall and winter months. Most cases are caused by parainfluenza viruses. We examine the monthly patterns of young children who made croup-related visits to EDs in Alberta, Canada.
Emergency department visits were identified in provincial administrative databases to obtain all ED encounters for croup made by young children (aged ≤2 years) during 6 years (April 1, 1999, to March 30, 2005). Time series models (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) were developed to capture temporal and seasonal trends and predict future presentations.
Overall, 27,355 croup-related ED visits were made during the study period. More males (62%) than females presented, and most (43%) were younger than 1 year. Differences were observed in the number of visits made in odd and even years. Peak visits occurred in November for odd years and in February for other years. Strong seasonal patterns at 12 months were detected and included in the modeling.
We observed the presence of a clear biennial pattern of croup ED visits. The seasonal autoregressive moving average models and predictions offer insights into the epidemiology of croup-related visits to EDs and may be helpful in planning both research and resource needs.
哮吼是一种常见的儿科呼吸道疾病，在秋冬季节常出现在急诊科。大多数病例由副流感病毒引起。我们研究了加拿大艾伯塔省因哮吼前往急诊科就诊的幼儿的月度模式。
在省级行政数据库中识别急诊科就诊情况，以获取6年期间（1999年4月1日至2005年3月30日）幼儿（年龄≤2岁）因哮吼的所有急诊科就诊记录。建立时间序列模型（季节性自回归积分滑动平均模型）以捕捉时间和季节趋势并预测未来就诊情况。
在研究期间，共进行了27355次与哮吼相关的急诊科就诊。就诊的男性（62%）多于女性，大多数（43%）年龄小于1岁。在奇数年和偶数年的就诊次数上观察到差异。奇数年的就诊高峰出现在11月，其他年份出现在2月。检测到12个月的强烈季节性模式并纳入建模。
我们观察到哮吼急诊科就诊存在明显的两年周期模式。季节性自回归滑动平均模型及预测为哮吼相关急诊科就诊的流行病学提供了见解，可能有助于规划研究和资源需求。
