MTT Economic Research, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland.
Prev Vet Med. 2011 Jun 1;100(1):4-14. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.03.005. Epub 2011 Apr 16.
The participation of agricultural producers in financing losses caused by livestock epidemics has been debated in many countries. One of the issues raised is how reluctant producers are to participate voluntarily in the financing of disease losses before an outbreak occurs. This study contributes to the literature by examining whether disease losses should be financed through pre- or post-outbreak premiums or their combination. A Monte Carlo simulation was employed to illustrate the costs of financing two diseases of different profiles. The profiles differed in the probability in which the damage occurs and in the average damage per event. Three hypothetical financing schemes were compared based on their ability to reduce utility losses in the case of risk-neutral and risk-averse producer groups. The schemes were examined in a dynamic setting where premiums depended on the compensation history of the sector. If producers choose the preferred financing scheme based on utility losses, results suggest that the timing of the premiums, the transaction costs of the scheme, the degree of risk aversion of the producer, and the level and the volatility of premiums affect the choice of the financing scheme.
许多国家都在讨论农业生产者参与牲畜疫情造成的损失融资问题。提出的问题之一是,生产者在疫情爆发前如何不情愿自愿参与疾病损失融资。本研究通过检查是否应通过疫情前或疫情后保费或其组合来为疾病损失提供资金,为文献做出了贡献。蒙特卡罗模拟用于说明为两种不同特征的疾病提供资金的成本。这些特征在损害发生的概率和每次事件的平均损害方面存在差异。基于其在风险中性和风险厌恶型生产者群体的情况下降低效用损失的能力,对三种假设的融资方案进行了比较。这些方案在保费取决于行业补偿历史的动态环境中进行了检查。如果生产者根据效用损失选择首选的融资方案,则结果表明,保费的时间、方案的交易成本、生产者的风险厌恶程度以及保费的水平和波动性都会影响融资方案的选择。