[Risk increase and economic consequences of the introduction of contagious animal diseases in the Netherlands].

The paper describes the development of the Monte Carlo simulation model VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation) and the results obtained with this model. VIRiS simulates the introduction of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) into the Netherlands. The model is based on objective information (research, databases), complemented by expert knowledge. Various questionnaire techniques (Conjoint Analysis, ELI) were used in order to elicit the experts' estimates in an objective and quantitative way. VIRiS provides information on the number of primary outbreaks in a certain period, their geographic location, causative risk factor, and causative country (or region). The information provided by VIRiS in combination with the outcome of models describing the spread and economic consequences of epidemics provides a tool that can be used to evaluate prevention strategies for their ability to reduce annual losses due to outbreaks.