Horst H S
Department Economie en Management, Landbouwuniversiteit Wageningen.
Tijdschr Diergeneeskd. 1999 Feb 15;124(4):111-5.
The paper describes the development of the Monte Carlo simulation model VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation) and the results obtained with this model. VIRiS simulates the introduction of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) into the Netherlands. The model is based on objective information (research, databases), complemented by expert knowledge. Various questionnaire techniques (Conjoint Analysis, ELI) were used in order to elicit the experts' estimates in an objective and quantitative way. VIRiS provides information on the number of primary outbreaks in a certain period, their geographic location, causative risk factor, and causative country (or region). The information provided by VIRiS in combination with the outcome of models describing the spread and economic consequences of epidemics provides a tool that can be used to evaluate prevention strategies for their ability to reduce annual losses due to outbreaks.
本文描述了蒙特卡洛模拟模型VIRiS（病毒引入风险模拟）的开发以及使用该模型获得的结果。VIRiS模拟了经典猪瘟（CSF）和口蹄疫（FMD）传入荷兰的情况。该模型基于客观信息（研究、数据库），并辅以专家知识。为了以客观和定量的方式得出专家的估计值，使用了各种问卷调查技术（联合分析、ELI）。VIRiS提供了关于特定时期内初次疫情爆发的数量、地理位置、致病风险因素和致病国家（或地区）的信息。VIRiS提供的信息与描述疫情传播和经济后果的模型结果相结合，提供了一种工具，可用于评估预防策略减少疫情爆发年度损失的能力。
