School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia, Australia.
Acta Trop. 2011 Jul;119(1):30-7. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2011.04.003. Epub 2011 Apr 20.
The increasing spread of multi-drug resistant malaria in African highlands has highlighted the importance of malaria suppression through vector control. Its historical success has meant that larval control has been proposed as part of an integrated malaria vector control program. Due to high operation costs, larval control activities would benefit greatly if the locations of mosquito habitats could be identified quickly and easily, allowing for focal habitat source suppression. Several mosquito habitat models have been developed to predict the location of mosquito habitats. However, to what extent these models can be generalised across time and space to predict the distribution of dynamic mosquito habitats remains largely unexplored. This study used mosquito habitat data collected in six different time periods and four different modelling approaches to establish 24 mosquito habitat models. We systematically tested the generality of these 24 mosquito habitat models. We found that although habitat--environment relationships change temporally, a modest level of performance was attained when validating the models using data collected from different time periods. We also describe flexible approaches to the predictive modelling of mosquito habitats, that provide novel modelling architecture for future research efforts.
非洲高原地区耐多药疟疾的不断蔓延，突显了通过病媒控制来抑制疟疾的重要性。它在历史上取得的成功意味着幼虫控制已被提议作为综合病媒控制方案的一部分。由于运营成本高，如果能够快速轻松地确定蚊子栖息地的位置，从而可以对重点栖息地来源进行抑制，那么幼虫控制活动将受益匪浅。已经开发了几种蚊子栖息地模型来预测蚊子栖息地的位置。然而，这些模型在多大程度上可以在时间和空间上进行概括，以预测动态蚊子栖息地的分布，在很大程度上仍未得到探索。本研究使用在六个不同时期收集的蚊子栖息地数据，并采用四种不同的建模方法，建立了 24 个蚊子栖息地模型。我们系统地测试了这 24 个蚊子栖息地模型的通用性。我们发现，尽管栖息地与环境的关系随时间发生变化，但在使用不同时期收集的数据验证模型时，仍达到了适度的性能水平。我们还描述了蚊子栖息地预测建模的灵活方法，为未来的研究工作提供了新颖的建模架构。
