Division of Clinical and Population Sciences and Education, University of Dundee, Mackenzie Building, Kirsty Semple Way, Dundee DD2 4BF, UK.
Alcohol Alcohol. 2011 Jul-Aug;46(4):459-63. doi: 10.1093/alcalc/agr042. Epub 2011 May 3.
To explore whether it is possible to predict future United Kingdom (UK) death rate of liver cirrhosis based on birth cohort models.
Routinely available mortality data were plotted graphically to display the trends in cirrhosis mortality by birth cohort in several countries. Data for Italy, France, Portugal, USA, Canada, Scotland and England & Wales were plotted by birth cohort.
The current increase in cirrhosis mortality in the UK countries is being driven by a birth cohort effect. Later birth cohorts have much higher death rates than preceding ones. This pattern was seen in Western European and North American countries, which had also experienced increases in liver cirrhosis mortality. However, after the increases, those countries had sudden and persistent falls in death rates. For each country, the dramatic reversal of death rates occurred at a single calendar period and in every age group simultaneously.
Prediction of future death rates using information from previous cohorts is not possible due to the occurrence of sudden reversals in death rates. The sudden fall in the death rates of several birth cohorts suggests that reversing the current UK trend of rising liver cirrhosis deaths is possible.
探讨是否可以基于出生队列模型预测未来英国（英国）肝硬化死亡率。
将常规可用的死亡率数据绘制成图表，以显示几个国家按出生队列划分的肝硬化死亡率趋势。通过出生队列绘制了意大利、法国、葡萄牙、美国、加拿大、苏格兰和英格兰和威尔士的数据。
英国国家肝硬化死亡率的当前上升是由出生队列效应驱动的。较晚的出生队列死亡率比前一个队列高得多。这种模式在经历了肝硬化死亡率上升的西欧和北美国家也可以看到。然而，在增加之后，这些国家的死亡率突然且持续下降。对于每个国家，死亡率的急剧逆转都发生在一个单一的日历期间，并且同时在每个年龄组中发生。
由于死亡率的突然逆转，使用来自以前队列的信息预测未来死亡率是不可能的。几个出生队列的死亡率突然下降表明，扭转目前英国肝硬化死亡人数上升的趋势是可能的。
