La Vecchia C, Levi F, Lucchini F, Franceschi S, Negri E
Institut universitaire de médecine social et préventive, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Ann Epidemiol. 1994 Nov;4(6):480-6. doi: 10.1016/1047-2797(94)90009-4.
Trends in mortality rates for liver cirrhosis between 1955 and 1990 have been analyzed for 38 countries (two from North America, six from Latin America, five from Asia, 23 from Europe, and Australia and New Zealand) on the basis of official death certification data derived from the World Health Organization database. Chile and Mexico had exceedingly high rates (around 60/100,000 males and 15/100,000 females in the late 1980s), while in Canada, the United States, and Latin American countries that provided data, cirrhosis death rates were between 5 and 17/100,000 males and 3 and 5/100,000 females over the same calendar period. The pattern of trends was, however, similar in all American countries, with some increase between the 1950s and the 1970s, and declines thereafter. A similar trend was observed in Japanese males, whose rate was 13.6 in 1990. Conversely, cirrhosis mortality declined steadily from 8.0 to 4.6 in Japanese females. Appreciable downward trends were observed in Hong Kong and Singapore, whereas mortality increased in Thailand. In Europe, in the late 1950s, the highest rates were registered in Portugal (33.6/100,000 males and 14.6/100,000 females), followed by France (31.8/100,000 males and 14.1/100,000 females), Austria, Italy, Spain, and Germany. Most of these countries, however, after some further rise up to the 1970s, showed reversal of the trends over most recent years. Thus, in the late 1980s or early 1990s, only Austria, Italy, and Portugal had cirrhosis mortality around 30/100,000 males and 10/100,000 females. Britain, Ireland, and Nordic countries started from much lower values (2 to 4/100,000 males), but showed some, although discontinuous, upward trend.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
基于世界卫生组织数据库中的官方死亡证明数据，对38个国家（两个来自北美洲，六个来自拉丁美洲，五个来自亚洲，23个来自欧洲，以及澳大利亚和新西兰）1955年至1990年期间肝硬化死亡率的趋势进行了分析。智利和墨西哥的死亡率极高（20世纪80年代后期，男性约为60/10万，女性约为15/10万），而在提供数据的加拿大、美国和拉丁美洲国家，同一时期肝硬化死亡率男性为5至17/10万，女性为3至5/10万。然而，所有美洲国家的趋势模式相似，20世纪50年代至70年代有所上升，此后下降。日本男性也观察到类似趋势，1990年其死亡率为13.6。相反，日本女性的肝硬化死亡率从8.0稳步下降至4.6。在香港和新加坡观察到明显的下降趋势，而泰国的死亡率上升。在欧洲，20世纪50年代后期，葡萄牙的死亡率最高（男性为33.6/10万，女性为14.6/10万），其次是法国（男性为31.8/10万，女性为14.1/10万）、奥地利、意大利、西班牙和德国。然而，这些国家中的大多数在20世纪70年代进一步上升后，近年来趋势出现逆转。因此，在20世纪80年代后期或90年代初期，只有奥地利、意大利和葡萄牙的肝硬化死亡率男性约为30/10万，女性约为10/10万。英国、爱尔兰和北欧国家的起始值要低得多（男性为2至4/10万），但显示出一些虽不连续但呈上升的趋势。（摘要截选至250词）
