1Department of Medicine, Cardiovascular Research Centre, Landspitali-The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
Europace. 2011 Aug;13(8):1110-7. doi: 10.1093/europace/eur132. Epub 2011 May 7.
Data are scarce on the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine recent trends in the incidence and prevalence of AF and project the prevalence to the year 2050.
From 1991 to 2008 a total of 4905 residents of Reykjavik, Iceland were diagnosed with AF at the city's main health care centre. The age-standardized incidence of AF increased in women (0.9% per year, 95% CI 0.1-1.8) but not in men (0.1% per year, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.9). The age-standardized prevalence increased per year by 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3) in men and 2.3% (95% CI 1.7-2.9) in women from 1998 to 2008. The number of adults with AF in Iceland is projected to increase from 4495 (prevalence 2.0%) in 2008 to 11 088 (prevalence 3.5%) in 2050, if the incidence of AF and mortality remain constant beyond 2008. However, if the incidence continues to increase as it has and mortality decreases according to projections for the general population, the projected number will rise to 13 583 (prevalence 4.3%).
In this study in a northern European population, the incidence of AF increased in women but not men from 1991 to 2008. The prevalence of AF is currently high and the number of patients with AF is expected to triple in the next four decades. AF is already a serious public health problem and the burden of this disease could reach epidemic proportions in the coming years.
关于欧洲房颤(AF)的流行病学数据很少。本研究的目的是研究 AF 的发病率和患病率的最新趋势,并预测到 2050 年的患病率。
1991 年至 2008 年期间,冰岛雷克雅未克市的主要医疗中心共诊断出 4905 名房颤患者。女性的年龄标准化发病率(每年 0.9%,95%CI 0.1-1.8)增加,但男性(每年 0.1%,95%CI -0.6 至 0.9)没有增加。从 1998 年至 2008 年,男性和女性的年龄标准化患病率每年分别增加 1.8%(95%CI 1.3-2.3)和 2.3%(95%CI 1.7-2.9)。如果 2008 年以后房颤的发病率和死亡率保持不变,冰岛的成年房颤患者人数预计将从 2008 年的 4495 人(患病率 2.0%)增加到 2050 年的 11088 人(患病率 3.5%)。然而,如果发病率继续增加,而死亡率根据一般人口的预测下降,则预计人数将上升至 13583 人(患病率 4.3%)。
在这项对北欧人群的研究中,1991 年至 2008 年期间,女性的房颤发病率增加,但男性没有增加。目前房颤的患病率较高,在未来四十年内,房颤患者的数量预计将增加两倍。房颤已经是一个严重的公共卫生问题,在未来几年,这种疾病的负担可能会达到流行的程度。