Wang Lu-Xi, Yan Mei-Ying, Fang Li-Qun, Fu Xiao-Qing, Wang Duo-Chun, Sun Jun-Ling, Cao Wu-Chun, Zhang Jing, Kan Biao
Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2011 May;32(5):485-9.
To characterize the spatial distribution of typhoid and paratyphoid fever (TPF) in Yunnan province, China and to determine the effectiveness of meteorological factors on the epidemics of TPF.
Data of reported TPF cases in Yunnan province (2001 - 2007) from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention was applied to GIS-based spatial analyses to detect their spatial distribution and clustering of TPF incidence at the county level. Panel data analysis was used to identify the relationships between the TPF incidence and meteorological factors including monthly average temperature, monthly cumulative precipitation and monthly average relative humidity.
During the study period, the average incidence of TPF in Yunnan province was 23.11/100 000, with majority of the TPF cases emerged in summer and autumn. Although widely distributed, two TPF clusters were detected in Yunnan province based on the spatial analysis: one area around Yuxi city with the average annual incidence as 207.45/100 000 and another at the junctions of Yunnan province with Burma and Laos. Based on results from panel data analysis, the incidence of TFP was shown to be associated with meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and one month lag of temperature increase [10°C increase in the monthly average temperature: IRR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.24 - 1.36); 10% increase in monthly average relative humidity: IRR = 1.07 (95%CI: 1.05 - 1.09); 100 mm rise in monthly cumulative precipitation: IRR = 1.02 (95%CI: 1.00 - 1.03); and 10°C average temperature increase, the last month: IRR = 1.73 (95%CI: 1.64 - 1.82)].
Areas with high TPF incidence were detected in this study, which indicated the key areas for TPF control in Yunnan province. Meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation and humidity played a role in the incidence of TPF.
描述中国云南省伤寒和副伤寒热（TPF）的空间分布特征，并确定气象因素对TPF流行的影响。
利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统中云南省（2001 - 2007年）报告的TPF病例数据，进行基于地理信息系统（GIS）的空间分析，以检测县级TPF发病率的空间分布和聚集情况。采用面板数据分析来确定TPF发病率与气象因素之间的关系，这些气象因素包括月平均气温、月累计降水量和月平均相对湿度。
在研究期间，云南省TPF的平均发病率为23.11/10万，大多数TPF病例出现在夏季和秋季。尽管分布广泛，但基于空间分析在云南省检测到两个TPF聚集区：一个是玉溪市周边地区，年平均发病率为207.45/10万，另一个位于云南省与缅甸和老挝的交界处。根据面板数据分析结果，TPF发病率与温度、降水、相对湿度等气象因素以及温度升高1个月滞后（月平均气温升高10°C：发病率比（IRR）= 1.30（95%置信区间：1.24 - 1.36）；月平均相对湿度增加10%：IRR = 1.07（95%置信区间：1.05 - 1.09）；月累计降水量增加100毫米：IRR = 1.02（95%置信区间：1.00 - 1.03）；以及上一个月平均气温升高10°C：IRR = 1.73（95%置信区间：1.64 - 1.82））有关。
本研究检测到TPF发病率高的地区，这表明了云南省TPF防控的重点区域。温度、降水和湿度等气象因素在TPF发病率中起作用。
