Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
J Hazard Mater. 2011 Jul 15;191(1-3):69-82. doi: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2011.04.040. Epub 2011 Apr 16.
This paper presents a model to assess the contribution of Human and Organizational Factor (HOF) to accidents. The proposed model is made up of two phases. The first phase is the qualitative analysis of HOF responsible for accidents, which utilizes Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) to seek out latent HOFs. The hierarchy of HOFs identified in the first phase provides inputs for the analysis in the second phase, which is a quantitative analysis using Bayesian Network (BN). BN enhances the ability of HFACS by allowing investigators or domain experts to measure the degree of relationships among the HOFs. In order to estimate the conditional probabilities of BN, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and decomposition method are applied in the model. Case studies show that the model is capable of seeking out critical latent human and organizational errors and carrying out quantitative analysis of accidents. Thereafter, corresponding safety prevention measures are derived.
本文提出了一个评估人为因素和组织因素（HOF）对事故贡献的模型。该模型由两个阶段组成。第一阶段是对导致事故的人为因素和组织因素进行定性分析，利用人为因素分析和分类系统（HFACS）找出潜在的人为因素和组织因素。第一阶段确定的人为因素和组织因素层次结构为第二阶段的分析提供了输入，第二阶段是使用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行定量分析。BN 通过允许调查人员或领域专家测量人为因素和组织因素之间的关系程度，增强了 HFACS 的能力。为了估计 BN 的条件概率，模型中应用了模糊层次分析法和分解方法。案例研究表明，该模型能够找出关键的潜在人为和组织错误，并对事故进行定量分析。随后，得出相应的安全预防措施。
