Department of International Shipping, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Jun 4;16(6):e0252732. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252732. eCollection 2021.
The catastrophic environmental, life and monetary losses concomitant to the hazardous cargo accidents have remained a matter of critical concern for the maritime transportation officials. The factors that instigate these accidents while dealing with hazardous cargo in a port environment requires rigorous analysis and evaluation, which still remains in its infancy. In accord to these prevailing issues, this study focusses on the assessment of multifactor risks associated with the dealing of hazardous cargos inside a port. The methodology adopted is the amalgamation of expert judgment and literature review for the identification of factors and developing their causal relationship, while Bayesian Network (BN) for the inference, which was based on 348 past accident reports from the year 1990 to 2018. The results indicate that under normal circumstances, the probability of an accident with considerable consequences is 59.8, where human and management were found to be the highest contributing factors. Setting evidence at the environment and pollution accident to occur, the incidence probability of the "management" is raised by 7.06%. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the most critical factors for the hazardous cargo accident. This study reveals that in order to evade the hazardous cargo accidents and curtail severity of the consequences, the port authorities, concerned government departments and other related institutions should pay specific attention to the qualification, training and attitude of the involved workforce. Moreover, the development and implementation of stringent safety protocols was also revealed to have critical prominence. This study holds practical vitality for enhancing safety and mitigating risks associated to hazardous cargo dealing in a port.
灾难性的环境、生命和货币损失伴随着危险货物事故，一直是海运官员关注的焦点。在港口环境中处理危险货物时引发这些事故的因素需要严格的分析和评估，而这仍然处于起步阶段。根据这些普遍存在的问题，本研究侧重于评估与港口内危险货物处理相关的多因素风险。采用的方法是专家判断和文献综述的结合，以识别因素并发展它们的因果关系，而贝叶斯网络（BN）则用于基于 1990 年至 2018 年的 348 份过去事故报告进行推断。结果表明，在正常情况下，后果严重事故的概率为 59.8%，其中人为因素和管理因素被认为是最高的两个因素。如果设定环境和污染事故发生的证据，“管理”的发生率将提高 7.06%。进行了敏感性分析以确定危险货物事故的最关键因素。本研究表明，为了避免危险货物事故并减少后果的严重性，港口当局、有关政府部门和其他相关机构应特别关注相关工作人员的资格、培训和态度。此外，还发现制定和实施严格的安全协议具有至关重要的意义。本研究对于提高港口危险货物处理的安全性和降低风险具有实际生命力。
