Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
PLoS One. 2011;6(5):e20001. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0020001. Epub 2011 May 18.
Predation affects life history traits of nearly all organisms and the population consequences of predator avoidance are often larger than predation itself. Climate change has been shown to cause phenological changes. These changes are not necessarily similar between species and may cause mismatches between prey and predator. Eurasian sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus, the main predator of passerines, has advanced its autumn phenology by about ten days in 30 years due to climate change. However, we do not know if sparrowhawk migrate earlier in response to earlier migration by its prey or if earlier sparrowhawk migration results in changes to predation risk on its prey. By using the median departure date of 41 passerine species I was able to show that early migrating passerines tend to advance, and late migrating species delay their departure, but none of the species have advanced their departure times as much as the sparrowhawk. This has lead to a situation of increased predation risk on early migrating long-distance migrants (LDM) and decreased the overlap of migration season with later departing short-distance migrants (SDM). Findings highlight the growing list of problems of declining LDM populations caused by climate change. On the other hand it seems that the autumn migration may become safer for SDM whose populations are growing. Results demonstrate that passerines show very conservative response in autumn phenology to climate change, and thus phenological mismatches caused by global warming are not necessarily increasing towards the higher trophic levels.
捕食作用影响几乎所有生物的生活史特征，而逃避捕食者的种群后果通常大于捕食本身。气候变化已被证明会引起物候变化。这些变化在物种之间不一定相似，可能导致猎物和捕食者之间的不匹配。欧亚雀鹰 Accipiter nisus 是雀形目鸟类的主要捕食者，由于气候变化，它的秋季物候期提前了大约 10 天，在 30 年内。然而，我们不知道雀鹰是否会更早地迁徙以应对猎物更早的迁徙，或者更早的雀鹰迁徙是否会导致对其猎物的捕食风险发生变化。通过使用 41 种雀形目物种的中位数出发日期，我能够表明，早期迁徙的雀形目鸟类往往会提前，而晚期迁徙的物种会延迟它们的出发，但没有一种物种的出发时间提前到像雀鹰那样多。这导致了早期迁徙的长距离迁徙者（LDM）面临更高的捕食风险，而迁徙季节与后来出发的短距离迁徙者（SDM）的重叠减少。这些发现突出了气候变化导致长距离迁徙者（LDM）种群数量下降的越来越多的问题。另一方面，对于其种群正在增长的短距离迁徙者（SDM）来说，秋季迁徙似乎变得更加安全。研究结果表明，雀形目鸟类在秋季物候学上对气候变化的反应非常保守，因此，由于全球变暖而导致的物候不匹配不一定会向更高的营养级别的增加。
