Pearce-Higgins J W, Yalden D W, Dougall T W, Beale C M
RSPB, Dunedin House, 25 Ravelston Terrace, Edinburgh EH43TP, UK.
Oecologia. 2009 Mar;159(3):649-59. doi: 10.1007/s00442-008-1242-4. Epub 2008 Dec 14.
There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated for other declining migrants.
迫切需要了解气候变化将如何影响脆弱物种的人口统计学参数。迁徙物种被认为特别容易受到气候变化的影响；物候不匹配已导致一种雀形目鸟类在当地数量减少，而其他雀形目鸟类的存活率变化则与非洲的天气状况有关。然而，尽管跨撒哈拉非雀形目迁徙物种在整个欧洲的数量下降幅度比雀形目更大，但针对它们的人口统计学研究却很少。因此，我们利用来自英格兰峰区的28年数据，分析了气候对普通矶鹬（Actitis hypoleucos）的存活率和繁殖力的影响，普通矶鹬是一种数量正在减少的非雀形目长距离迁徙鸟类。成年个体的存活率与冬季北大西洋涛动（NAO）显著负相关，当西欧冬季温暖湿润而西北非冬季凉爽干燥时，成年个体存活率较低。种群繁殖力的年度变化与6月温度呈正相关，但与物候不匹配指数无关。该物种59%的数量下降似乎主要是由成年个体存活率降低导致的，当地的繁殖力与随后的种群变化相关性较差，这表明出生地忠诚度较低。在另一个为期12年的苏格兰边境种群中，冬季NAO与成年个体存活率没有显著相关性。因此，仅气候条件的变化似乎并不是普通矶鹬数量下降的原因。与一些雀形目迁徙物种不同，没有证据表明气候导致了繁殖力下降，尽管移民在决定当地补充数量方面的明显重要性使对繁殖力影响的评估变得复杂。我们建议，进一步诊断普通矶鹬数量下降的研究应侧重于迁徙中途停歇地或越冬地条件的变化。在可能的情况下，应对其他数量正在减少的迁徙物种重复进行这些分析。
