Business Economics, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg 1, 6706 KN, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
J Food Prot. 2011 Jun;74(6):967-79. doi: 10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-10-350.
The aim of this study was to quantify the financial consequences of a milk-dioxin crisis on the stages of the dairy chain involved. The milk dioxin contamination impact model was designed for this purpose and also was used to estimate the net costs of control measures limiting the impact. Results obtained based on the assumption of the worst-case scenario in which the entire daily production of each business unit from feed supplier to milk processor is contaminated suggested that the financial impact of one dioxin incident would be €141.2 million. Another assumption was that the dioxin contamination started at one feed processing plant and was detected 2 weeks after initial contamination (the high-risk period), which would result in the involvement of 714 dairy farms, 26 milk processors, and 2,664 retailers. The stages of the chain that contributed most to the total net costs were the milk processor (76.9%) and the dairy farm (20.5%). If the high-risk period were shorter, i.e., 3 days, the estimated total financial impact decreases to €10.9 million. Thus, early detection of the contamination is crucial for decreasing the number of food businesses involved and lowering the total financial impact. The most influential inputs of the model were the sale price of milk at the processing stage, the daily amount of milk processed per processing plant, the farm-blocking period, and the daily amount of milk produced per farm. However, the effect of these inputs on the total financial impact was less than 10.0%. These results can be used to establish priorities in the application of control measures to limit the financial and public health impacts of a possible food safety incident.
本研究旨在量化乳品行业受二恶英污染危机各环节的经济后果。为此设计了乳品二恶英污染影响模型，并用于估计限制影响的控制措施的净成本。基于最坏情况下（即每个从饲料供应商到乳品加工商的业务单位的每日生产均受到污染）的假设，该模型得出的结果表明，一次二恶英事件的经济影响将达 1.412 亿欧元。另一个假设是，二恶英污染始于一个饲料加工厂，并在最初污染后两周（高风险期）被发现，这将导致 714 家奶牛场、26 家乳品加工厂和 2664 家零售商受到牵连。对总净成本贡献最大的链段是乳品加工厂（76.9%）和奶牛场（20.5%）。如果高风险期更短，即 3 天，则估计的总财务影响降至 1090 万欧元。因此，及早发现污染对于减少受污染食品企业的数量和降低总财务影响至关重要。该模型最具影响力的输入是加工阶段的牛奶销售价格、每个加工厂每天加工的牛奶量、农场封锁期以及每个农场每天生产的牛奶量。然而，这些投入对总财务影响的影响小于 10.0%。这些结果可用于确定应用控制措施的优先次序，以限制可能的食品安全事件的财务和公共卫生影响。
