在2007年疫情爆发后，澳大利亚新南威尔士州证明已摆脱马流感。
Demonstrating freedom from equine influenza in New South Wales, Australia, following the 2007 outbreak.
作者信息
Sergeant E S G, Wilson G
机构信息
NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange, NSW, Australia.
出版信息
Aust Vet J. 2011 Jul;89 Suppl 1:164-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00779.x.
OBJECTIVE
To quantify the probability of freedom from equine influenza (EI) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, based on analysis of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing.
METHODS
Testing in the infected areas of NSW during the period 1 January to 30 April 2008.
RESULTS
Data from the random survey were collated and analysed to provide estimates of the probability of detecting EI if it was present at a prevalence ranging from 0.01% to 0.5%. The sensitivity estimates were then combined with a prior estimate of the probability of freedom in a simulation model, to estimate the posterior probability of freedom from EI (given the negative results of the random survey).
CONCLUSIONS
The very large volume of PCR tests performed provided a very high level of confidence that EI had been successfully eradicated from NSW.
目的
基于聚合酶链反应（PCR）检测分析，量化澳大利亚新南威尔士州（NSW）无马流感（EI）的概率。
方法
于2008年1月1日至4月30日期间在新南威尔士州的感染地区进行检测。
结果
整理并分析随机调查的数据，以提供在流行率从0.01%至0.5%范围内若存在EI时检测到EI的概率估计值。然后将敏感性估计值与模拟模型中无EI概率的先验估计值相结合，以估计（鉴于随机调查的阴性结果）无EI的后验概率。
结论
所进行的大量PCR检测提供了非常高的置信度，即EI已在新南威尔士州成功根除。
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