Microsoft Research, Cambridge CB3 0FB, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 9;108(32):13171-6. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1109389108. Epub 2011 Jul 5.
For most organisms, the number of described species considerably underestimates how many exist. This is itself a problem and causes secondary complications given present high rates of species extinction. Known numbers of flowering plants form the basis of biodiversity "hotspots"--places where high levels of endemism and habitat loss coincide to produce high extinction rates. How different would conservation priorities be if the catalog were complete? Approximately 15% more species of flowering plant are likely still undiscovered. They are almost certainly rare, and depending on where they live, suffer high risks of extinction from habitat loss and global climate disruption. By using a model that incorporates taxonomic effort over time, regions predicted to contain large numbers of undiscovered species are already conservation priorities. Our results leave global conservation priorities more or less intact, but suggest considerably higher levels of species imperilment than previously acknowledged.
对于大多数生物来说,已描述的物种数量大大低估了实际存在的物种数量。这本身就是一个问题,而且由于目前物种灭绝率很高,还会导致其他一些次要的并发症。已知的开花植物数量是生物多样性“热点”的基础——这些地方的特有物种和栖息地丧失程度都很高,导致灭绝率很高。如果目录完整,保护重点会有多大的不同?可能还有大约 15%的开花植物尚未被发现。它们几乎肯定是稀有的,并且根据它们的生活地点,它们面临着由于栖息地丧失和全球气候破坏而导致灭绝的高风险。通过使用一种随着时间的推移纳入分类学努力的模型,已经预测到包含大量未被发现物种的区域是保护的重点。我们的研究结果或多或少地保持了全球保护的重点,但比之前所承认的物种濒危程度要高得多。