Drees Claudia, Brandmayr Pietro, Buse Jörn, Dieker Petra, Gürlich Stephan, Habel Jan, Harry Ingmar, Härdtle Werner, Matern Andrea, Meyer Hartmut, Pizzolotto Roberto, Quante Markus, Schäfer Katharina, Schuldt Andreas, Taboada Angela, Assmann Thorsten
Tel Aviv University, George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences, Department of Zoology, The National Collections of Natural History, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel.
Zookeys. 2011(100):333-52. doi: 10.3897/zookeys.100.1535. Epub 2011 May 20.
We investigated the extent of poleward shifts in the distribution range of Agonum viridicupreum due to climate change in the western Palaearctic. Species' records were obtained from extensive literature sources as well as from collections, and consistent amateur entomologists' recordings. Within the general geographic range of the species, we analyzed in detail two parts of both, the northern and southern distribution range boundaries: (1 and 2) north-western Germany (leading or high-latitude edge), (3) Israel and (4) southern Italy (rear or low-latitude edge). Temporal changes in the occurrence data of the species indicated a northward shift of the leading edge of a minimum of 100 km within the last 50 to 100 years. In contrast, according to the data gathered, the rear edge has not changed during the last decades. Further studies are needed in order to fully understand the underlying mechanisms of the different behaviour of leading and rear range edges of Agonum viridicupreum in the current context of global change. Despite our incomplete understanding, chronosequences of the occurrence of the given species have the potential to optimize climate niche modelling to predict trends in the distribution range in the future.
我们研究了在古北区西部，由于气候变化，绿铜阿贡步甲分布范围向极地移动的程度。物种记录来自大量文献资料、标本收集以及业余昆虫学家持续的记录。在该物种的总体地理范围内，我们详细分析了其分布范围边界的北部和南部的两个部分：（1和2）德国西北部（前沿或高纬度边缘）、（3）以色列以及（4）意大利南部（后方或低纬度边缘）。该物种出现数据的时间变化表明，在过去50到100年里，前沿至少向北移动了100公里。相比之下，根据收集到的数据，后方边缘在过去几十年里没有变化。为了全面理解在当前全球变化背景下绿铜阿贡步甲前沿和后方范围边缘不同行为的潜在机制，还需要进一步研究。尽管我们的理解并不完整，但给定物种出现的时间序列有潜力优化气候生态位模型，以预测未来分布范围的趋势。
