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使用条件价值评估法估算摩洛哥德拉河谷的灌溉用水需求。

Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation.

机构信息

Institute for Food and Resource Economics, Bonn University, Nussallee 21, D-53115 Bonn, Germany.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2011 Oct;92(10):2803-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.027. Epub 2011 Jul 7.

Abstract

Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in Morocco as in many other parts of the world. For the implementation of an effective water management, knowledge about farmers' demand for irrigation water is crucial to assess reactions to water pricing policy, to establish a cost-benefit analysis of water supply investments or to determine the optimal water allocation between different users. Previously used econometric methods providing this information often have prohibitive data requirements. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is adjusted to derive a demand function for irrigation water along farmers' willingness to pay for one additional unit of surface water or groundwater. An application in the Middle Drâa Valley in Morocco shows that the method provides reasonable results in an environment with limited data availability. For analysing the censored survey data, the Least Absolute Deviation estimator was found to be a more suitable alternative to the Tobit model as errors are heteroscedastic and non-normally distributed. The adjusted CVM to derive demand functions is especially attractive for water scarce countries under limited data availability.

摘要

灌溉水管理对摩洛哥乃至世界许多其他地区的农业生产和生计安全至关重要。为了实施有效的水管理,了解农民对灌溉水的需求至关重要,这有助于评估水价政策的反应,进行供水投资的成本效益分析,或确定不同用户之间的最佳水资源分配。以前使用的提供这些信息的计量经济学方法通常需要大量的数据。本文调整了条件价值评估法(CVM),以根据农民对额外单位地表水或地下水的支付意愿,推导出灌溉水需求函数。摩洛哥德拉河谷中部的应用表明,该方法在数据有限的环境下提供了合理的结果。为了分析被删失的调查数据,发现最小绝对离差估计量比 Tobit 模型更适合,因为误差是异方差和非正态分布的。在数据有限的情况下,调整后的 CVM 来推导出需求函数,对水资源短缺的国家尤其具有吸引力。

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