U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Newtown Square, PA 19073, USA.
Science. 2011 Aug 19;333(6045):988-93. doi: 10.1126/science.1201609. Epub 2011 Jul 14.
The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year(-1) from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1) partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1). Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year(-1), with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.
近几十年来,陆地碳汇一直很大,但它的规模和位置仍不确定。利用森林清查数据和长期生态系统碳研究,我们估计 1990 年至 2007 年期间,全球森林碳汇总量为每年 2.4 ± 0.4 太字节碳(Pg C year(-1))。我们还估计热带土地利用变化产生了 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year(-1) 的碳源,其中包括热带森林砍伐造成的 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1) 的总排放量,部分被热带森林再生的碳汇 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1) 所抵消。总的来说,这些通量构成了全球森林净碳汇 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year(-1),其中热带地区的估计值具有最大的不确定性。我们的森林总碳汇估计与从化石燃料排放和土地利用变化源减去海洋和大气汇得出的陆地汇相当。