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中国及全球陆地碳汇及其对碳中和的贡献。

Terrestrial carbon sinks in China and around the world and their contribution to carbon neutrality.

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100093, China.

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.

出版信息

Sci China Life Sci. 2022 May;65(5):861-895. doi: 10.1007/s11427-021-2045-5. Epub 2022 Feb 8.


DOI:10.1007/s11427-021-2045-5
PMID:35146581
Abstract

Enhancing the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink (referred to as terrestrial C sink) is an important way to slow down the continuous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) concentration and to achieve carbon neutrality target. To better understand the characteristics of terrestrial C sinks and their contribution to carbon neutrality, this review summarizes major progress in terrestrial C budget researches during the past decades, clarifies spatial patterns and drivers of terrestrial C sources and sinks in China and around the world, and examines the role of terrestrial C sinks in achieving carbon neutrality target. According to recent studies, the global terrestrial C sink has been increasing from a source of (-0.2±0.9) Pg C yr (1 Pg=10 g) in the 1960s to a sink of (1.9±1.1) Pg C yr in the 2010s. By synthesizing the published data, we estimate terrestrial C sink of 0.20-0.25 Pg C yr in China during the past decades, and predict it to be 0.15-0.52 Pg C yr by 2060. The terrestrial C sinks are mainly located in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, while tropical regions act as a weak C sink or source. The C balance differs much among ecosystem types: forest is the major C sink; shrubland, wetland and farmland soil act as C sinks; and whether the grassland functions as C sink or source remains unclear. Desert might be a C sink, but the magnitude and the associated mechanisms are still controversial. Elevated atmospheric CO concentration, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land cover change are the main drivers of terrestrial C sinks, while other factors such as fires and aerosols would also affect ecosystem C balance. The driving factors of terrestrial C sink differ among regions. Elevated CO concentration and climate change are major drivers of the C sinks in North America and Europe, while afforestation and ecological restoration are additionally important forcing factors of terrestrial C sinks in China. For future studies, we recommend the necessity for intensive and long term ecosystem C monitoring over broad geographic scale to improve terrestrial biosphere models for accurately evaluating terrestrial C budget and its dynamics under various climate change and policy scenarios.

摘要

增强陆地生态系统碳汇(简称陆地碳汇)是减缓大气二氧化碳(CO)浓度持续增加、实现碳中和目标的重要途径。为了更好地了解陆地碳汇的特征及其对碳中和的贡献,本综述总结了过去几十年陆地碳预算研究的主要进展,阐明了中国及全球陆地碳源汇的空间格局及其驱动因素,并检验了陆地碳汇在实现碳中和目标中的作用。根据最近的研究,全球陆地碳汇已从 20 世纪 60 年代的碳源(-0.2±0.9)Pg C yr(1 Pg=10 g)增加到 2010 年代的碳汇(1.9±1.1)Pg C yr。通过综合已发表的数据,我们估计过去几十年中国的陆地碳汇为 0.20-0.25 Pg C yr,并预测到 2060 年将达到 0.15-0.52 Pg C yr。陆地碳汇主要分布在北半球中高纬度地区,而热带地区则表现为较弱的碳汇或碳源。不同生态系统类型的碳平衡差异很大:森林是主要的碳汇;灌丛、湿地和农田土壤是碳汇;草原是碳汇还是碳源尚不清楚。荒漠可能是碳汇,但规模和相关机制仍存在争议。大气 CO 浓度升高、氮沉降、气候变化和土地覆被变化是陆地碳汇的主要驱动因素,而火灾和气溶胶等其他因素也会影响生态系统碳平衡。陆地碳汇的驱动因素因地区而异。CO 浓度升高和气候变化是北美和欧洲碳汇的主要驱动因素,而在中国,造林和生态修复也是陆地碳汇的重要驱动因素。未来的研究需要在广泛的地理尺度上进行密集和长期的生态系统碳监测,以改进陆地生物圈模型,从而在各种气候变化和政策情景下准确评估陆地碳预算及其动态。

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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
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Natl Sci Rev. 2019-5

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Nature. 2021-7

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Climate warming from managed grasslands cancels the cooling effect of carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands.

Nat Commun. 2021-1-5

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Science. 2020-12-11

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