Understanding uncertainty in seagrass injury recovery: an information-theoretic approach.

Vessel groundings cause severe, persistent gaps in seagrass beds. Varying degrees of natural recovery have been observed for grounding injuries, limiting recovery prediction capabilities, and therefore, management's ability to focus restoration efforts where natural recovery is unlikely. To improve our capacity for predicting seagrass injury recovery, we used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the relative contribution of specific injury attributes to the natural recovery of 30 seagrass groundings in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Florida, USA. Injury recovery was defined by three response variables examined independently: (1) initiation of seagrass colonization, (2) areal contraction, and (3) sediment in-filling. We used a global model and all possible subsets for four predictor variables: (1) injury age, (2) original injury volume, (3) original injury perimeter-to-area ratio, and (4) wave energy. Successional processes were underway for many injuries with fast-growing, opportunistic seagrass species contributing most to colonization. The majority of groundings that exhibited natural seagrass colonization also exhibited areal contraction and sediment in-filling. Injuries demonstrating colonization, contraction, and in-filling were on average older and smaller, and they had larger initial perimeter-to-area ratios. Wave energy was highest for colonizing injuries. The information-theoretic approach was unable to select a single "best" model for any response variable. For colonization and contraction, injury age had the highest relative importance as a predictor variable; wave energy appeared to be associated with second-order effects, such as sediment in-filling, which in turn, facilitated seagrass colonization. For sediment in-filling, volume and perimeter-to-area ratio had similar relative importance as predictor variables with age playing a lesser role than seen for colonization and contraction. Our findings confirm that these injuries naturally initiate seagrass colonization with the potential to recover to pre-injury conditions, but likely on a decadal scale given the slow growth of the climax species (Thalassia testudinum), which is often the most severely injured. Our analysis supports current perceptions that sediment in-filling is critical to the recovery process and indicates that in order to stabilize injuries and facilitate seagrass recovery, managers should consider immediate restorative filling procedures for injuries having an original volume >14-16 m3.