Perez-Hoyos S, Naniche D, Macete E, Aponte J J, Sacarlal J, Sigauque B, Bardaji A, Moraleda C, de Deus N, Alonso P L, Menéndez C
Barcelona Centre for International Health Research (CRESIB), Hospital Clínic/IDIBAPS, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain Manhiça Health Research Center (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique.
HIV Med. 2011 Sep;12(8):500-5. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-1293.2010.00908.x.
The collection of incidence data on HIV infection is necessary to evaluate the status and dynamics of the epidemic and the effectiveness of intervention strategies. However, this is usually difficult in low-income countries.
Five yearly point HIV prevalence estimations (in 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2008) were obtained for women between 15 and 45 years of age participating in three studies carried out for other purposes at the Antenatal Clinic (ANC) in Manhiça, Mozambique. HIV incidence was estimated between prevalence points using a previously validated methodology. Two methods were used, one based on mortality rates for three HIV epidemic scenarios, and the other based on survival information after infection. The pattern over time was captured by fitting a log-regression model.
The prevalence of HIV infection ranged from 12% in 1999 to 49% in 2008. The HIV incidence increased from approximately 3.5 cases per 100 person-years in 2001 to 14 per 100 person-years in 2004, with stabilization thereafter to levels of around 12 cases per 100 person-years. The incidence estimates were comparable for the two methods used.
These findings indicate an increase in the prevalence and incidence of HIV infection among women of reproductive age over the 9 years of the analysis, with a plateau in the incidence of infection since 2005. However, the very high figures for both prevalence and incidence highlight the importance of the continuation of the prevention and treatment programmes that already exist, and suggest that implementation of preventive measures is needed in this area.
收集艾滋病毒感染的发病率数据对于评估疫情的现状和动态以及干预策略的有效性至关重要。然而，在低收入国家，这通常很困难。
获取了参与在莫桑比克马尼卡产前诊所（ANC）为其他目的开展的三项研究的15至45岁女性的五年期艾滋病毒流行率估计值（分别为1999年、2003年、2004年、2005年和2008年）。使用先前验证的方法在流行率时间点之间估计艾滋病毒发病率。采用了两种方法，一种基于三种艾滋病毒流行情景的死亡率，另一种基于感染后的生存信息。通过拟合对数回归模型来捕捉随时间的变化模式。
艾滋病毒感染率从1999年的12% 到2008年的49%不等。艾滋病毒发病率从2001年的每100人年约3.5例增加到2004年的每100人年14例，此后稳定在每100人年约12例的水平。所使用的两种方法得出的发病率估计值具有可比性。
这些发现表明，在分析的9年中，育龄妇女中艾滋病毒感染的流行率和发病率有所上升，自2005年以来感染发病率趋于平稳。然而，极高的流行率和发病率数字凸显了继续实施现有预防和治疗方案的重要性，并表明该领域需要实施预防措施。
