Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Science. 2011 Jul 29;333(6042):562-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1209290.
The world is currently in the midst of the greatest demographic upheaval in human history. Dramatic reductions in mortality, followed (but with a lag) by equally marked reductions in fertility, resulted in a doubling of world population between 1960 and 2000. A further increase of 2 to 4.5 billion is projected for the current half-century, with the increase concentrated in the world's least developed countries. Despite alarmist predictions, historical increases in population have not been economically catastrophic. Moreover, changes in population age structure have opened the door to increased prosperity. Demographic changes have had and will continue to have profound repercussions for human well-being and progress, with some possibilities for mediating those repercussions through policy intervention.
目前，世界正处于人类历史上最大的人口结构变化之中。死亡率的急剧下降，随后（但有滞后）生育率同样显著下降，导致世界人口在 1960 年至 2000 年间翻了一番。预计在当前的半个世纪内，人口还将再增加 20 亿至 45 亿，而且增长主要集中在世界上最不发达国家。尽管有危言耸听的预测，但历史上人口的增长并没有在经济上造成灾难性后果。此外，人口年龄结构的变化为繁荣创造了机会。人口变化已经并将继续对人类福祉和进步产生深远影响，通过政策干预，一些可能的影响可以得到缓解。
