Doblhammer G, Kreft D
Institut für Soziologie und Demographie, Universität Rostock, Konrad-Zuse-Strasse 1, Rostock, Germany.
Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. 2011 Aug;54(8):907-14. doi: 10.1007/s00103-011-1315-0.
During the 20th century, life expectancy has been continuously increasing with the majority of the additional years resulting from decreasing mortality among the old and oldest old in the last few decades. Two phases of convergence and divergence in European mortality have been identified, with a possible new phase of divergence taking place among the oldest old. Over this period, women have always been living longer than men. Explanations for this phenomenon include not only biological factors and differences in lifestyle and health care utilization, but also differences in reporting patterns. Trends in health do not follow a clear direction. Reasons are the different dimensions of health as well as inadequate data. In general, the prevalence of morbidity has been increasing, while functional limitations and ADL disabilities have been decreasing. Due to a lack of data, no information exists for trends among the oldest old at age 80 and above. In absolute terms, the number of healthy years has been increasing with increasing life expectancy. In relative terms, they have been stable, probably slightly increasing in some countries. These trends suggest that increasing life expectancy does not result in an increase in morbidity.
在20世纪，预期寿命持续增长，过去几十年中新增的大部分寿命是由于老年人和高龄老人死亡率的下降。欧洲死亡率已被确定存在两个趋同和分化阶段，高龄老人中可能正在出现一个新的分化阶段。在此期间，女性的寿命一直比男性长。对这一现象的解释不仅包括生物学因素、生活方式和医疗保健利用方面的差异，还包括报告模式的差异。健康趋势并不遵循明确的方向。原因在于健康的不同维度以及数据不足。总体而言，发病率一直在上升，而功能受限和日常生活活动能力障碍则在减少。由于缺乏数据，80岁及以上高龄老人的趋势尚无相关信息。从绝对数量来看，随着预期寿命的增加，健康年份的数量一直在增加。从相对数量来看，它们一直保持稳定，在一些国家可能略有增加。这些趋势表明，预期寿命的增加并不会导致发病率上升。
