School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Health Econ. 2011 Sep;20 Suppl 1:35-52. doi: 10.1002/hec.1686. Epub 2010 Nov 24.
New contraceptive methods provide greater choice in terms of effectiveness, management of side-effects, convenience and frequency of administration and flexibility, but make the decisions about contraception more complex. There are limited data on the factors that determine women's choices among these alternatives, to inform providers about the factors which are most important to women, or to predict uptake of new products. This paper reports on a choice experiment designed to elicit women's preferences in relation to prescribed contraception and to forecast the impact of the introduction of two new products into the Australian market. A generalised multinomial logit model is estimated and used in the simulation exercise. The model forecasts that the hormonal patch would be well received among women, achieving a greater market share than current non-pill products, but the vaginal ring would have limited appeal.
新的避孕方法在有效性、副作用管理、使用方便性和频率以及灵活性方面提供了更大的选择，但也使得避孕决策更加复杂。关于哪些因素决定了女性在这些选择之间的选择，目前的数据有限，这既无法为提供者提供女性最看重的因素的相关信息，也无法预测新产品的采用情况。本文报告了一项选择实验的结果，该实验旨在了解女性对处方避孕的偏好，并预测两种新产品在澳大利亚市场推出的影响。估计了一个广义多项逻辑模型，并在模拟练习中使用了该模型。该模型预测，荷尔蒙贴片将在女性中广受欢迎，比目前的非药丸产品获得更大的市场份额，但阴道环的吸引力有限。
