Narrod C, Tiongco M, Scott R
International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA.
Rev Sci Tech. 2011 Apr;30(1):31-49. doi: 10.20506/rst.30.1.2014.
Changes in livestock production, driven by both demand- and supply-side factors, have been significant worldwide. Though historically the developed world was a large supplier of meat and livestock for the developing world, the developing world has rapidly increased production and is meeting more of its growing domestic demand. Many regions of the developing world, however, do not produce enough currently to meet their domestic demand and continue to import more than they produce. There are exceptions, such as Brazil, Thailand, the People's Republic of China and India, where growth in livestock production has been rapid. It is anticipated that in the future many of the developing countries will increase domestic production to meet growing domestic demand. By 2030, beef will probably still be the most significant meat import of developing countries and milk will have more than doubled as a net export of the developed world.
受需求和供给双方因素驱动，全球范围内畜牧业生产发生了重大变化。虽然从历史上看，发达国家曾是发展中国家肉类和牲畜的主要供应方，但发展中国家的产量已迅速增长，且正满足其日益增长的国内需求。然而，发展中世界的许多地区目前产量不足以满足国内需求，仍在进口多于产出。也有一些例外，如巴西、泰国、中华人民共和国和印度，这些国家的畜牧业生产增长迅速。预计未来许多发展中国家将增加国内产量，以满足不断增长的国内需求。到2030年，牛肉可能仍是发展中国家最重要的肉类进口产品，而牛奶作为发达国家的净出口产品将增长一倍以上。
