Trends in population attributable fraction of acute coronary syndrome and ischaemic stroke due to diabetes in Finland.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) event rates are decreasing, but the prevalence of diabetes is increasing. The effect of these developments on the population attributable fraction (PAF) of CVD events due to diabetes is not known.

METHODS

We used country-wide healthcare registers to identify all persons aged 25-80 years treated for diabetes in Finland during 1992-2002. These data were further linked to the National Cardiovascular Disease Register to identify the first CVD events (acute coronary syndrome and ischaemic stroke) among the individuals with and without diabetes. We calculated the annual PAF of the first CVD events due to diabetes separately for men and women.

RESULTS

The number of men treated for diabetes each year almost doubled during the study period from 37,073 to 69,158 between 1992 and 2002. Among women, the number increased from 42,485 to 57,372. The annual number of first CVD events in the country declined among men with diabetes from 13,436 to 12,678 and among women with diabetes from 8,658 to 7,521 between 1992 and 2002. During the same period, the PAF due to diabetes of the first CVD events increased among men from 11.4% (95% CI 10.8, 12.0%) to 13.8% (95% CI 13.2, 14.5%) and decreased among women from 20.1% (95% CI 19.2, 21.0%) to 16.9% (95% CI 15.9, 17.8%). The trends in PAF were different between the sexes (p < 0.001 for the interaction year × sex).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Despite the very large increase in the prevalence of diabetes, the PAF of the first CVD events due to diabetes decreased in women and increased only slightly in men.