Long-term risk of ESRD in IgAN; validation of Japanese prognostic model in a Norwegian cohort.

BACKGROUND

Recently, a Japanese model used to predict 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in IgA nephropathy (IgAN) patients was published. We tested the applicability of the Japanese model in predicting 10- to 20-year risk of ESRD and all-cause mortality in a cohort of Norwegian IgAN patients.

METHODS

A cohort of IgAN patients (1988-2004) were identified in the Norwegian Kidney Biopsy Registry (NKBR) and ESRD or death during follow-up through 2008 was identified through record linkage with the Norwegian Renal Registry (ESRD) and the Norwegian Population Registry (deaths). Data from the NKBR were used to classify patients into nine different prognostic groups (0-1, 1-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-30, 30-50, 50-70, 70-90 and >90% risk of ESRD) according to the Japanese prognostic model. The predicted risk was compared to the measured risk of ESRD in the different prognostic groups.

RESULTS

In eight of the nine risk groups, representing 597/633 (94%) of the patients in our cohort, the observed 10-year risk was within or close to the expected 10-year risk of ESRD. ESRD occurring after >10 years of observation was most frequent in the groups with 5-30% expected risk at 10 years of follow-up. A close association between risk of ESRD and risk of death prior to ESRD was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The Japanese prognostic model is applicable to predict 10-year risk of ESRD in Norwegian IgAN patients. A new finding in the present study is that the model can also be used to predict which patients have the highest risk of developing ESRD after 10-20 years of follow-up as well as all-cause mortality risk.