School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2011 Aug;12(4):320-6. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2011.565434.
Road traffic conflicts can be used to estimate the probability of accident occurrence, assess road safety, or evaluate road safety programs if the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts is known. To this end, we propose a model for the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders (DRs).
DRs were installed in 50 cars in Beijing to collect records of traffic conflicts. Data containing 1366 conflicts were collected in 193 days. The hourly distributions of conflicts and accidents were used to model the relationship between accidents and conflicts. To eliminate time series and base number effects, we defined and used 2 parameters: average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour and average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour. A model was developed to describe the relationship between the two parameters.
If A(i) = average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, and E(i) = average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, the relationship can be expressed as [Formula in text] (α>0, β>0). The average number of traffic accidents increases as the number of conflicts rises, but the rate of increase decelerates as the number of conflicts increases further.
The proposed model can describe the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts in a simple manner. According to our analysis, the model fits the present data.
如果已知交通事故与冲突之间的关系，那么道路交通冲突可用于估计事故发生的概率、评估道路安全或评估道路安全计划。为此，我们提出了一种基于行车记录仪（DR）记录的交通事故与冲突关系的模型。
在北京的 50 辆汽车上安装了 DR 以收集交通冲突记录。在 193 天内收集了包含 1366 个冲突的数据。利用冲突和事故的小时分布来建立事故与冲突之间的关系模型。为了消除时间序列和基数效应，我们定义并使用了 2 个参数：每小时每万辆车的事故平均数量和每小时每万辆车的冲突平均数量。开发了一个模型来描述这两个参数之间的关系。
如果 A(i)=每小时每 10000 辆车的事故平均数量，E(i)=每小时每 10000 辆车的冲突平均数量，则该关系可以表示为[公式]（α>0，β>0）。随着冲突数量的增加，交通事故的平均数量增加，但随着冲突数量的进一步增加，增长率会减缓。
所提出的模型可以简单地描述交通事故与冲突之间的关系。根据我们的分析，该模型适合目前的数据。
