Rinaldi Sergio
DEI, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/5, 20133 Milano, Italy.
Theor Popul Biol. 2012 Feb;81(1):1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2011.08.002. Epub 2011 Aug 16.
A minimal model for the interactions of trees, insects, and their enemies suggests a simple formula for splitting all forests where insect outbreaks can occur into two categories: where outbreaks are periodic and endogenously generated and where outbreaks are triggered by exogenous factors and are, in general, recurrent but aperiodic. The formula is in full agreement with all field studies in which various phenomena triggering insect outbreaks have been identified. The observed consequences of introductions and removals of insects are also well predicted by the minimal model. But, even more surprisingly, the model allows a simple and explicit condition for the synchronization of outbreaks in spatially extended forests to be derived analytically. This condition is, in general, satisfied when the insect is a so-called pest, that is, when the outbreaks are extreme. The model also predicts the possibility of traveling waves of insect outbreaks.
一个关于树木、昆虫及其天敌相互作用的最小模型提出了一个简单公式，可将所有可能发生昆虫爆发的森林分为两类：一类爆发是周期性且由内生因素产生的，另一类爆发是由外生因素引发的，通常是反复发生但无周期性的。该公式与所有已确定引发昆虫爆发的各种现象的实地研究完全一致。最小模型也很好地预测了引入和移除昆虫所观察到的后果。但是，更令人惊讶的是，该模型允许通过分析得出空间扩展森林中爆发同步的一个简单且明确的条件。一般来说，当昆虫是所谓的害虫时，即爆发非常严重时，这个条件会得到满足。该模型还预测了昆虫爆发行波的可能性。
