Barlow Lee-Ann, Cecile Jacob, Bauch Chris T, Anand Madhur
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
PLoS One. 2014 Apr 15;9(4):e90511. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0090511. eCollection 2014.
The invasion of nonnative, wood-boring insects such as the Asian longhorned beetle (A. glabripennis) and the emerald ash borer (A. planipennis) is a serious ecological and economic threat to Canadian deciduous and mixed-wood forests. Humans act as a major vector for the spread of these pests via firewood transport, although existing models do not explicitly capture human decision-making regarding firewood transport. In this paper we present a two-patch coupled human-environment system model that includes social influence and long-distance firewood transport and examines potential strategies for mitigating pest spread. We found that increasing concern regarding infestations (f) significantly reduced infestation. Additionally it resulted in multiple thresholds at which the intensity of infestation in a patch was decreased. It was also found that a decrease in the cost of firewood purchased in the area where it is supposed to be burned (Cl) resulted in an increased proportion of local-firewood strategists, and a 67% decrease in Cl from $6.75 to $4.50 was sufficient to eliminate crosspatch infestation. These effects are synergistic: increasing concern through awareness and education campaigns acts together with reduced firewood costs, thereby reducing the required threshold of both awareness and economic incentives. Our results indicate that the best management strategy includes a combination of public education paired with firewood subsidization.
诸如亚洲长角天牛（光肩星天牛）和翡翠灰螟（光肩星天牛）等非本土钻木昆虫的入侵，对加拿大的落叶林和混交林构成了严重的生态和经济威胁。人类通过运输木柴成为这些害虫传播的主要媒介，尽管现有模型并未明确体现人类在木柴运输方面的决策。在本文中，我们提出了一个双斑块耦合的人类 - 环境系统模型，该模型纳入了社会影响和长途木柴运输，并研究了减轻害虫传播的潜在策略。我们发现，对虫害的关注度（f）增加会显著降低虫害发生率。此外，这还导致了多个阈值，在这些阈值下斑块中的虫害强度会降低。研究还发现，在预计燃烧木柴的地区购买木柴的成本（Cl）降低，会导致本地木柴策略使用者的比例增加，并且将Cl从6.75美元降至4.50美元（降幅67%）足以消除斑块间的虫害。这些效应是协同的：通过宣传和教育活动提高关注度，与降低木柴成本共同作用，从而降低了对关注度和经济激励的要求阈值。我们的结果表明，最佳管理策略包括公众教育与木柴补贴相结合。
