1992 年前后职业伤害的全国趋势及工伤保险费用的预测因素。

National trends in occupational injuries before and after 1992 and predictors of workers' compensation costs.

机构信息

Massachusetts General Hospital, Department of Surgery, Boston, MA, USA.

出版信息

Public Health Rep. 2011 Sep-Oct;126(5):625-34. doi: 10.1177/003335491112600504.

DOI:10.1177/003335491112600504

PMID:21886322

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3151179/

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations.

METHODS

We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions.

RESULTS

From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973-2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992-2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor.

CONCLUSION

We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973-2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments.

摘要

目的

就发病率和医疗费用而言，职业伤害和疾病的数量和成本非常可观，但我们对其时间趋势的了解甚少。本研究旨在调查这些趋势，并探讨一些关于波动原因的常见假设。

方法

我们从美国劳工统计局（U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics）获取了 1973 年至 2007 年期间与伤害和疾病相关的发病率（每 100 名全职就业工人）数据，从国家社会保险研究所（National Academy of Social Insurance）获取了成本和福利数据。发病率反映了所有伤害和疾病病例、损失工作时间病例以及导致至少 31 天无法工作的病例。我们对美元成本（保费）和福利进行了通胀调整，并按就业工人进行了衡量。我们将数据绘制成时间趋势图，并进行线性回归。

结果

1973 年至 1991 年，伤害和疾病发病率呈微弱或不存在的下降趋势，且与失业率呈强烈负相关。1992 年至 2007 年，呈持续下降趋势，但与失业率不再存在显著相关性。1973 年至 2007 年，工人赔偿保费的显著预测因素（及其符号）包括医疗价格通胀（正）、损失工时伤害数量（正）、道琼斯工业平均指数（负）和美国国债通胀调整后利率（负）。福利金的美元价值与医疗通胀和损失工时病例数量呈显著正相关。对于 1992 年至 2007 年，道琼斯指数变量是保费的唯一稳健预测因素；伤害数量不是显著的正预测因素。