Gerbi Gemechu B, Habtemariam Tsegaye, Tameru Berhanu, Nganwa David, Robnett Vinaida
Center for Computational Epidemiology, Bioinformatics and Risk Analysis, Tuskegee University, USA.
AIDS Care. 2012;24(3):331-9. doi: 10.1080/09540121.2011.608418. Epub 2011 Sep 7.
The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sexual practices among HIV-seropositive men. A knowledgebase was developed by reviewing different published sources. The data were collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selected journals, and reports. The risk pathway scenario tree was developed based on a comprehensive review of published literature. The variables are organized into nine major parameter categories. Monte Carlo simulations for the quantitative risk assessment of HIV/AIDS transmission was executed with the software @Risk 4.0 (Palisade Corporation). Results show that the value for the likelihood of unprotected sex due to having less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and negative attitude toward condom use and safer sex ranged from 1.24 × 10(-5) to 8.47 × 10(-4) with the mean and standard deviation of 1.83 × 10(-4) and 8.63 × 10(-5), respectively. The likelihood of unprotected sex due to having greater anger-hostility, anxiety, less satisfied with aspects of life, and greater depressive symptoms ranged from 2.76 × 10(-9) to 5.34 × 10(-7) with the mean and standard deviation of 5.23 × 10(-8) and 3.58 × 10(-8), respectively. The findings suggest that HIV/AIDS research and intervention programs must be focused on behavior, and the broader setting within which individual risky behaviors occur.
本研究的目的是对影响艾滋病毒血清呈阳性男性通过无保护性行为传播艾滋病毒/艾滋病的多种因素进行定量风险评估。通过查阅不同的已发表资料建立了一个知识库。数据收集自不同来源，包括疾病控制与预防中心、选定的期刊和报告。风险路径情景树是在对已发表文献进行全面综述的基础上制定的。变量被组织成九个主要参数类别。使用@Risk 4.0软件（Palisade公司）对艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播的定量风险评估进行了蒙特卡罗模拟。结果表明，由于对艾滋病毒/艾滋病了解较少、对使用避孕套和安全性行为持消极态度而发生无保护性行为的可能性值在1.24×10⁻⁵至8.47×10⁻⁴之间，均值和标准差分别为1.83×10⁻⁴和8.63×10⁻⁵。由于愤怒敌意情绪更强、焦虑、对生活方面满意度较低以及抑郁症状更严重而发生无保护性行为的可能性值在2.76×10⁻⁹至5.34×10⁻⁷之间，均值和标准差分别为5.23×10⁻⁸和3.58×10⁻⁸。研究结果表明，艾滋病毒/艾滋病研究和干预项目必须关注行为，以及个体危险行为发生的更广泛背景。
