Abdalla Ehsan, Nganwa David
Assistant Professor/Director of Analytics of Public Health, Department of Graduate Public Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Tuskegee University, Phone: (334) 727-8042, Email:
Formerly Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Department of Pathobiology/Department of Graduate Public Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Tuskegee University, Phone: (334) 524-1988, Email:
J Healthc Sci Humanit. 2024 Fall;14(1):73-92.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a highly infectious disease of paramount public health importance. COVID-19 is mainly transmitted via human-to-human contact. This could be through self-inoculation resulting from failure to observe proper hand hygiene and infection control practices. Our objective was to develop a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model for determining the efficacy of wearing makeup as a mitigation in reducing COVID-19 transmission between genders. Utilizing the epidemiologic problem oriented approach methodology, after reviewing different published literature, and data collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), selected journals, and reports, a comprehensive knowledgebase was developed. A conceptual scenario tree drown based on the knowledgebase. Variables were grouped into five major parameters. Monte Carlo simulations of QRA parameters were run utilizing @Risk software. The probability of COVID-19 transmission due to the face-touching frequency times per hour ranged from 2.30 × 10-7 to 3.87 × 10-5 with the mean and standard deviation (SD) of 7.93 × 10-6 and 6.37 × 10-6 respectively. The probability of transmission due to T-zone touching frequency times per hour for all the participants and those females who usually wear makeup and both males and few females who do not, with values ranging from 9.66 × 10-8 to 7.20 × 10-6 with the mean and SD of 1.85 × 10-6 and 1.29 × 10-6 respectively. Females were the less likely to touch their faces (45%), compared to males (55%). Females were less likely to touch their faces and contact with the T-zone when wearing makeup (24%) than that of those who did not (62%). Wearing makeup is a way to create a barrier between your face, especially the T-zone and your contaminated hands. The use of makeup can be utilized as a mitigation, which reduces the likelihood of face touching and thus in the transmission of COVID-19.
新冠疫情是一种极具传染性且对公共卫生至关重要的疾病。新冠病毒主要通过人际接触传播。这可能是由于未遵守正确的手部卫生和感染控制措施而导致的自我接种。我们的目标是开发一种定量风险评估（QRA）模型，以确定化妆作为一种缓解措施在减少新冠病毒在不同性别之间传播方面的效果。利用以流行病学问题为导向的方法学，在查阅了不同的已发表文献以及从包括疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）、选定期刊和报告等不同来源收集的数据后，建立了一个全面的知识库。基于该知识库绘制了一个概念情景树。变量被分为五个主要参数。利用@Risk软件对QRA参数进行了蒙特卡洛模拟。每小时因触摸脸部频率导致新冠病毒传播的概率范围为2.30×10⁻⁷至3.87×10⁻⁵，均值和标准差（SD）分别为7.93×10⁻⁶和6.37×10⁻⁶。所有参与者以及通常化妆的女性和不化妆的男性及少数女性每小时因触摸T区频率导致传播的概率范围为9.66×10⁻⁸至7.20×10⁻⁶，均值和SD分别为1.85×10⁻⁶和1.29×10⁻⁶。女性触摸脸部的可能性（45%）低于男性（55%）。女性化妆时触摸脸部和接触T区的可能性（24%）低于不化妆时（62%）。化妆是在脸部尤其是T区和受污染的手部之间建立屏障的一种方式。使用化妆品可作为一种缓解措施，降低触摸脸部的可能性，从而减少新冠病毒的传播。
