Bonneux Luc G A, Autier Philippe
Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut, Afd. Population Dynamics, Den Haag, the Netherlands.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2011;155(35):A3774.
Comparison of breast cancer mortality between pairs of similar countries (Sweden and Norway, Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, the Netherlands and Belgium or Flanders), each of which had implemented its population-wide breast cancer screening programme at a different point in time, demonstrated little effect of screening on mortality. In the Netherlands, a well-organised population-wide screening programme was started in the early nineties, ten years before such a programme was introduced in Flanders. We used the 1989-1992 period as a baseline and compared breast cancer mortality in the Netherlands with that in Flanders during the 2005-2008 period. The added value of organised screening was low: 11% in the target age group of 55-79 years, or 180 prevented breast-cancer deaths annually. A total of 5000 screening mammograms were needed to prevent one death from breast cancer. Breast cancer screening is not a public health priority. Impartial and transparent information on the disadvantages and benefits of breast cancer screening is urgently needed.
对几对相似国家（瑞典和挪威、北爱尔兰和爱尔兰共和国、荷兰和比利时或弗拉芒地区）的乳腺癌死亡率进行比较，每对国家中每个国家在不同时间点实施了全国性乳腺癌筛查计划，结果显示筛查对死亡率影响甚微。在荷兰，一项组织良好的全国性筛查计划于九十年代初启动，比弗拉芒地区引入此类计划早十年。我们将1989 - 1992年期间作为基线，比较了荷兰与弗拉芒地区在2005 - 2008年期间的乳腺癌死亡率。有组织筛查的附加值较低：在55 - 79岁目标年龄组中为11%，即每年可预防180例乳腺癌死亡。每预防一例乳腺癌死亡总共需要5000次筛查乳房X光检查。乳腺癌筛查并非公共卫生优先事项。迫切需要提供关于乳腺癌筛查利弊的公正且透明的信息。
