Centre for Quantitative Medicine, Office of Clinical Sciences, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore.
Epidemiol Infect. 2012 Jul;140(7):1244-51. doi: 10.1017/S095026881100183X. Epub 2011 Sep 12.
Our objective was to determine the association between temperature, humidity, rainfall and dengue activity in Singapore, after taking into account lag periods as well as long-term climate variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We used a Poisson model which allowed for autocorrelation and overdispersion in the data. We found weekly mean temperature and mean relative humidity as well as SOI to be significantly and independently associated with dengue notifications. There was an interaction effect by periods of dengue outbreaks, but periods where El Niño was present did not moderate the relationship between humidity and temperature with dengue notifications. Our results help to understand the temporal trends of dengue in Singapore, and further reinforce the findings that meteorological factors are important in the epidemiology of dengue.
我们的目的是在考虑滞后期以及长期气候变异性（如厄尔尼诺南方涛动指数（SOI））的情况下，确定新加坡温度、湿度、降雨量和登革热活动之间的关联。我们使用泊松模型，该模型允许数据的自相关和过离散。我们发现每周平均温度、平均相对湿度和 SOI 与登革热通知显著且独立相关。在登革热爆发期间存在相互作用效应，但厄尔尼诺现象存在的时期并没有缓和湿度和温度与登革热通知之间的关系。我们的研究结果有助于了解新加坡登革热的时间趋势，并进一步证实气象因素在登革热流行病学中很重要。
