Bentley D L, Bentley J L, Watson D L, Welch R A, Martin R W, Gookin K S, Knuppel R A, Lake M F, Hill W C, Fleming A D
Mathematics Department, Pomona College, Claremont, California.
Obstet Gynecol. 1990 Jul;76(1 Suppl):36S-38S.
An increased uterine contraction rate is associated with preterm labor. The contraction rate in individual patients, however, has not been evaluated critically as to its predictive value in forecasting early labor. In this randomized multicenter study, 105 patients at high risk for preterm delivery monitored their contraction rate at home on a daily basis. An analysis was conducted to determine the association of at least four contractions per hour on a routine strip followed by at least four contractions per hour on a repeat tracing with subsequent preterm labor. Using this threshold, 70% of the patients were correctly classified. This contraction rate resulted in a sensitivity of 57%, a specificity of 80%, a positive predictive value of 72%, and a negative predictive value of 68%. A threshold rate of at least four contractions per hour on a remonitor strip identifies a patient at increased risk for preterm labor (P = .003).
子宫收缩频率增加与早产相关。然而，对于个体患者的收缩频率在预测早产方面的价值，尚未进行严格评估。在这项随机多中心研究中，105名早产高危患者每天在家监测其收缩频率。进行分析以确定常规记录每小时至少有四次宫缩，随后重复记录每小时至少有四次宫缩与随后早产之间的关联。使用此阈值，70%的患者被正确分类。这种收缩频率导致敏感性为57%，特异性为80%，阳性预测值为72%，阴性预测值为68%。重新监测记录每小时至少有四次宫缩的阈值可识别早产风险增加的患者（P = 0.003）。
