School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2012 Sep 15;434:130-42. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.07.069. Epub 2011 Sep 29.
Lakes have, rather grandly, been described as sentinels, integrators and regulators of climate change (Williamson et al., Limnol. Oceanogr. 2009; 54: 2273-82). Lakes are also part of the continuum of the water cycle, cogs in a machine that processes water and elements dissolved and suspended in myriad forms. Assessing the changes in the functioning of the cogs and the machine with respect to these substances as climate changes is clearly important, but difficult. Many other human-induced influences, not least eutrophication, that impact on catchment areas and consequently on lakes, have generally complicated the recording of recent change in sediment records and modern sets of data. The least confounded evidence comes from remote lakes in mountain and polar regions and suggests effects of warming that include mobilisation of ions and increased amounts of phosphorus. A cottage industry has arisen in deduction and prediction of the future effects of climate change on lakes, but the results are very general and precision is marred not only by confounding influences but by the complexity of the lake system and the infinite variety of possible future scenarios. A common conclusion, however, is that warming will increase the intensity of symptoms of eutrophication. Direct experimentation, though expensive and still unusual and confined to shallow lake and wetland systems is perhaps the most reliable approach. Results suggest increased symptoms of eutrophication, and changes in ecosystem structure, but in some respects are different from those deduced from comparisons along latitudinal gradients or by inference from knowledge of lake behaviour. Experiments have shown marked increases in community respiration compared with gross photosynthesis in mesocosm systems and it may be that the most significant churnings of these cogs in the earth-air-water machine will be in their influence on the carbon cycle, with possibly large positive feedback effects on warming.
湖泊被描述为气候变化的哨兵、综合者和调节者（Williamson 等人，Limnol. Oceanogr. 2009；54：2273-82）。湖泊也是水循环连续体的一部分，是处理水以及溶解和悬浮在无数形态中的元素的机器中的齿轮。评估随着气候变化，这些物质在齿轮和机器功能上的变化显然很重要，但也很困难。许多其他人为的影响，尤其是富营养化，会影响集水区，进而影响湖泊，这通常使最近在沉积物记录和现代数据集记录中变化的记录变得复杂。最不混杂的证据来自山区和极地的偏远湖泊，表明变暖的影响包括离子的迁移和磷含量的增加。一个推断和预测气候变化对湖泊未来影响的小型产业已经出现，但结果非常笼统，不仅受到混杂因素的影响，而且还受到湖泊系统的复杂性和未来可能情景的无限多样性的影响。然而，一个共同的结论是，变暖将加剧富营养化的症状。直接实验虽然昂贵且仍不常见，并且仅限于浅湖和湿地系统，可能是最可靠的方法。结果表明富营养化症状和生态系统结构发生了变化，但在某些方面与从纬度梯度比较或从湖泊行为知识推断得出的结果不同。实验表明，在中观系统中，群落呼吸与总光合作用相比显著增加，这些地球-空气-水机器中的齿轮最显著的搅动可能是它们对碳循环的影响，可能对变暖产生较大的正反馈效应。
