Department of Epidemiology and Injury Prevention Research Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-7505, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2011 Oct;12(5):432-7. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2011.601370.
To investigate the effect of a driver improvement class on postclass moving traffic violations and crashes among drivers charged with speeding.
A total of 5079 drivers who completed an 8-hour class were compared to a control group of 25,275 drivers from the same locale who had been convicted of speeding during the same time period but had not taken the class. Counts of convictions and crashes were available for all drivers for 2 years prior to the class and between 1 and 3 years after the class or key speeding conviction. Zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to measure the expected number of convictions among those who took the class compared with subjects who did not take it.
Individuals with a moving violation conviction had 2.5 times the odds of having previous convictions for moving violations and almost 1.5 times the odds of having been involved in a crash. Drivers who took the class had convictions similar to the control group after the class (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR]: 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-1.12) but were less likely to be involved in subsequent crashes (IRR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.77-0.91).
The results suggest that among drivers overall, exposure to driver improvement classes as a means to change drivers' behaviors is not significantly associated with fewer convictions for moving violations but may be effective in reducing crashes.
调查驾驶员改进课程对被控超速驾驶员课后违章行驶和事故的影响。
将 5079 名完成 8 小时课程的驾驶员与同一地点的 25275 名因超速被定罪但未参加课程的对照组驾驶员进行比较。所有驾驶员在参加课程前 2 年和参加课程后 1 至 3 年(或关键超速定罪)的定罪和事故记录均可获得。使用零膨胀负二项式模型来衡量参加课程者与未参加课程者的预期定罪数。
有违章行驶定罪的个人以前有违章行驶定罪的可能性是其他人的 2.5 倍,发生事故的可能性是其他人的近 1.5 倍。参加课程的驾驶员在课后与对照组的定罪情况相似(发病率比 [IRR]:1.03,95%置信区间 [CI]:0.95-1.12),但随后发生事故的可能性较低(IRR:0.83,95%CI:0.77-0.91)。
结果表明,在总体驾驶员中,作为改变驾驶员行为的一种手段,接受驾驶员改进课程与违章行驶定罪次数减少之间没有明显关联,但可能有效减少事故。