Li Zhuo, Knight Stacey, Cook Lawrence J, Hyde Lisa K, Holubkov Richard, Olson Lenora M
Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of Utah, 375 Chipeta Way, Salt Lake City, UT 84108, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Mar;40(2):835-9. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.09.022. Epub 2007 Oct 9.
Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death for young people in the United States. Assessing which drivers are at a high risk of experiencing a crash is important for the implementation of traffic regulations. Illegal street racing has been associated with a high rate of motor vehicle crashes. In this study, we link Utah statewide driver license citations and motor vehicle crash data to evaluate the rate of crashes for drivers with street racing citations relative to other drivers. Using a zero-inflated negative binomial model we found that drivers with no citations are approximately three times more likely to be at zero risk of a crash compared to drivers with street racing citations. Moreover, among drivers at non-negligible risk of crash, cited street racers are more likely to be involved in a crash compared to drivers without citations or those cited for violations other than street racing. However, drivers with increased numbers of non-street-racing citations experience crash risks approaching those of the cited street racers.
机动车撞车事故是美国年轻人死亡的主要原因。评估哪些驾驶员发生撞车事故的风险较高，对于交通法规的实施至关重要。非法街头赛车与机动车撞车事故的高发生率相关。在本研究中，我们将犹他州全州范围的驾照罚单与机动车撞车事故数据相联系，以评估有街头赛车罚单的驾驶员相对于其他驾驶员的撞车事故发生率。使用零膨胀负二项式模型，我们发现，与有街头赛车罚单的驾驶员相比，没有罚单的驾驶员发生撞车事故的零风险可能性大约高三倍。此外，在有不可忽略撞车风险的驾驶员中，被查处的街头赛车手比没有罚单的驾驶员或因非街头赛车违规行为被查处的驾驶员更有可能卷入撞车事故。然而，非街头赛车罚单数量增加的驾驶员所面临的撞车风险接近被查处的街头赛车手。
