a Department of Sociology , University of Pennsylvania , Pennsylvania , USA.
Popul Stud (Camb). 1969 Jul;23(2):267-77. doi: 10.1080/00324728.1969.10405281.
Abstract This paper represents an initial attempt to formalize the relationships among post-partum sterility, fecundability, and contraceptive acceptance in terms of absorbing Markov chains. Acceptance of contraception offered by family planning programmes is analyzed as a possible event in time for a cohort of recently delivered women as they pass through phases of temporary sterility and fecundability towards another possible pregnancy. The results of the study indicate that once a woman leaves the post-partum anovulatory stage, the probability of her becoming pregnant again is large compared to the competing rates of contraceptive acceptance currently in force. Unless highly fecund non-contracepting women are approached by family planning programmes shortly after a pregnancy has been terminated (by childbirth or abortion), they will quickly become ineligible to accept either the pill or IUD because of once again being 'currently pregnant'.
本文试图用吸收马尔可夫链的方法使产后不育、可育性和避孕接受度之间的关系形式化。将计划生育项目提供的避孕措施的接受情况分析为一个时间事件，针对最近分娩的妇女队列，她们通过暂时不育和可育阶段，走向另一次可能的怀孕。研究结果表明，一旦妇女离开产后无排卵阶段，与当前生效的避孕措施接受率相比，她再次怀孕的可能性很大。除非计划生育项目在怀孕（分娩或堕胎）结束后不久接触到生育能力强且不避孕的妇女，否则她们很快就会因为再次“当前怀孕”而无法接受避孕药或宫内节育器。
