Popul Stud (Camb). 1966 Jul;20(1):77-83. doi: 10.1080/00324728.1966.10406085.
Abstract A comparison of the proportionate age distributions for negroes enumerated in the decennial censuses of the United States in the first half of the rorh century indicates that by 1850, negro fertility apparently had been declining for at least 20 years. This paper develops the relationship of the age distribution of a declining fertility population, where the decline has persisted for less than 25 years, to the stable population with the same current schedules of fertility and mortality. This relationship is used to estimate the negro birth rate and total fertility as of 1850. In turn, these estimates and the relationship of the age distributions of two stable populations with different fertility are used to estimate the negro birth rate and total fertility as of 1830.
文摘 在 19 世纪上半叶，美国每十年进行一次人口普查，对其中的黑人数量进行了比例年龄分布的比较，结果表明，到 1850 年，黑人的生育率显然已经下降了至少 20 年。本文阐述了生育持续下降不足 25 年的衰退人口的年龄分布与具有相同当前生育和死亡率的稳定人口之间的关系。利用这种关系可以估算 1850 年的黑人出生率和总生育率。反过来，这些估算值以及两个具有不同生育率的稳定人口的年龄分布关系，可以用于估算 1830 年的黑人出生率和总生育率。
