Macaskill Anne C, Hackenberg Timothy D
Department of Psychology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States.
Behav Processes. 2012 Mar;89(3):212-8. doi: 10.1016/j.beproc.2011.11.001. Epub 2011 Nov 19.
The sunk cost error occurs when individuals persist with a non-optimal course of action because they have already invested time or resources in it. The current study examined the effect of specific experiences on the likelihood of the sunk cost error. Six pigeons were given repeated choices between persisting with and escaping from relatively large fixed ratios. In most conditions escaping was the choice pattern producing the smallest mean response requirement. In Experiment 1, four of six pigeons persisted, committing the sunk cost error. Some subjects continued to persist even when persistence increased the mean number of responses to reinforcement by 99. In Experiment 2, the absolute difference between the mean numbers of responses to reinforcement for persistence and escape was increased even further for these subjects, and the relative cost of persistence was increased. Once escape had been established, pigeons were less likely to commit the sunk cost error in some conditions where they had previously made the error frequently. Together, the results of both experiments show changes in the frequency of the sunk cost error caused by specific experiences, and that persistence is likely more sensitive to its relative than absolute costs.
当个体因为已经在某一行动中投入了时间或资源而坚持采取非最优行动方案时，就会出现沉没成本谬误。当前的研究考察了特定经历对沉没成本谬误发生可能性的影响。六只鸽子在坚持和逃离相对较大的固定比率之间反复做出选择。在大多数情况下，逃离是产生最小平均反应要求的选择模式。在实验1中，六只鸽子中有四只坚持，犯了沉没成本谬误。即使坚持会使强化的平均反应次数增加99次，一些受试者仍继续坚持。在实验2中，对于这些受试者，坚持和逃离的强化平均反应次数之间的绝对差异进一步增大，坚持的相对成本也增加了。一旦建立了逃离模式，鸽子在某些它们之前经常犯错误的情况下就不太可能犯沉没成本谬误。两个实验的结果共同表明，特定经历会导致沉没成本谬误发生频率的变化，而且坚持可能对其相对成本而非绝对成本更敏感。
