Long term trend analysis of geographical disparity in aging and disability: Taiwanese population approach.

Purposes of the present paper were to describe the overtime change of disability prevalence among the elderly (65 years and older), and to analyze the geographic disparity of the disability prevalence during the year 2000-2010 in Taiwan. Study data mainly come from two public web-access information: (1) The physically and mentally disabled population by age and grade, 2000-2010; (2) Taiwan general population by age, 2000-2010. We used statistical methods include number, percentage and geographical information system (GIS) to describe the disability prevalence among the elderly people by year and administrative area, and a trend test was conducted to examine the overtime change of disability prevalence in the elderly people. The results found that the mean of disability prevalence rate in the elderly population was 14.8% and it was significantly increased during the past 11 years (R(2) = 0.901; p < 0.0001). With regards to the elderly disability prevalence disparity in administrative areas, those areas of higher elderly disability prevalence were more likely to occur in east-mountain areas-Taitung County (24.2%), Yilan County (21.0%), Hualien County (20.3%), and central-agricultural counties such as Yunlin County (21.8%), Nantou County (17.6%) and Chiayi County (17.3%). The most relative change areas of disability prevalence rate in the elderly population during the past 11 years were more likely to occur in central or east areas in Taiwan. The present study highlights the authorities should pay much attention to increasing rate and the geographical disparity of disability prevalence in the elderly population, to allocate appropriate health and welfare resources for this vulnerable population.