Department of Social Security, School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.
Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.
Front Public Health. 2023 Mar 13;11:1087276. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1087276. eCollection 2023.
The impact of the aging population in China varies between regions. It is because regions with different resource endowments, such as those related to economy, population, and medical care, have different degrees of disability risk in the face of the increases in the disabled and semi-disabled older population caused by the overall aging of the population. This study aimed to construct an evaluation system to monitor and measure the degree of social disability risk in different regions in China and to evaluate and compare the degree of social disability risk in different regions using empirical data.
This study used the Delphi method to construct a social disability risk measurement index system with macro, meso, and micro dimensions. At the same time, based on the data of CHARLS2018, an AHP-entropy method was used to calculate the index's total weight, and the standard deviation classification method was used to classify the total and criterion-level measurement scores of 28 provinces.
The regional degree of social disability risk was analyzed in subdimensions. Our research indicates that China's social disability risk situation is not promising, with a general medium to high-risk level. The score of degree of social disability risk among provinces is consistent with the regional economic development level to a large extent. The risk of social disability varies significantly among the eastern and central, and western regions of China and the provinces within the three regions.
Currently, the situation facing the degree of social disability risk in China is that the overall risk level of the country is higher, and the difference between regions is significant. It is necessary to take measures to meet better the needs of the aging population and the disabled and semi-disabled older populations in a large-range, large-scale, multilevel way.
中国人口老龄化的影响因地区而异。这是因为经济、人口和医疗等资源禀赋不同的地区，在面对因人口全面老龄化而增加的残疾和半残疾老年人口时，面临的残疾风险程度不同。本研究旨在构建一个评价体系，监测和衡量中国不同地区的社会残疾风险程度，并利用实证数据评价和比较不同地区的社会残疾风险程度。
本研究采用德尔菲法构建了一个具有宏观、中观和微观维度的社会残疾风险度量指标体系。同时，基于 CHARLS2018 数据，采用层次分析法-熵值法计算指标总权重，采用标准差分类法对 28 个省份的总指标和准则层测量得分进行分类。
对各子维度的区域社会残疾风险程度进行分析。研究表明，中国的社会残疾风险状况不容乐观，总体处于中高风险水平。各省份社会残疾风险程度得分在很大程度上与区域经济发展水平一致。中国东、中、西部地区以及三个地区内各省份的社会残疾风险差异显著。
目前，中国社会残疾风险程度面临的情况是全国整体风险水平较高，地区差异显著。有必要采取措施，以大区域、大规模、多层次的方式更好地满足老龄化人口和残疾及半残疾老年人口的需求。
