现实碰撞中行人伤害严重程度与 Euro NCAP 行人测试结果的相关性。
The correlation between pedestrian injury severity in real-life crashes and Euro NCAP pedestrian test results.
机构信息
Swedish Transport Administration and Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Borlänge, Sweden.
出版信息
Traffic Inj Prev. 2011 Dec;12(6):604-13. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2011.607198.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of the present study was to estimate the correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian rating scores and injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes, with special focus on long-term disability. Another aim was to determine whether brake assist (BA) systems affect the injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes and to estimate the combined effects in injury reduction of a high Euro NCAP ranking score and BA.
METHODS
In the current study, the Euro NCAP pedestrian scoring was compared with the real-life outcome in pedestrian crashes that occurred in Sweden during 2003 to 2010. The real-life crash data were obtained from the data acquisition system Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA), which combines police records and hospital admission data. The medical data consisted of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnoses and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scoring. In all, approximately 500 pedestrians submitted to hospital were included in the study. Each car model was coded according to Euro NCAP pedestrian scores. In addition, the presence or absence of BA was coded for each car involved. Cars were grouped according to their scoring. Injury outcomes were analyzed with AIS and, at the victim level, with permanent medical impairment. This was done by translating the injury scores for each individual to the risk of serious consequences (RSC) at 1, 5, and 10 percent risk of disability level. This indicates the total risk of a medical disability for each victim, given the severity and location of injuries. The mean RSC (mRSC) was then calculated for each car group and t-tests were conducted to falsify the null hypothesis at p ≤ .05 that the mRSC within the groups was equal.
RESULTS
The results showed a significant reduction of injury severity for cars with better pedestrian scoring, although cars with a high score could not be studied due to lack of cases. The reduction in RSC for medium-performing cars in comparison with low-performing cars was 17, 26, and 38 percent for 1, 5, and 10 percent of medical impairment, respectively. These results applied to urban areas with speed limits up to 50 km/h, although no significant reduction was found in higher speed zones. Regarding cars with BA, the null hypothesis could not be rejected at p = .05; hence, no significant results of injury reduction were found.
CONCLUSIONS
A significant correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian score and injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes was found. Injury reduction was found to be higher with increasing severity and level of permanent medical impairment. The difference between 1- and 2-star cars is 17 percent in mean risk of permanent medical impairment (mRSC) 1%+, 26 percent in mRSC 5%+, and 38 percent in mRSC 10%+ for crashes in speed zones up to 50 km/h. Brake assist was not found to provide a statistically significant injury reduction.
目的
本研究旨在评估欧洲新车评价规程（Euro NCAP）行人评分与现实生活中车撞行人事故的伤害结果之间的相关性，特别关注长期残疾。另一个目的是确定制动辅助（BA）系统是否会影响现实生活中车撞行人事故的伤害结果，并估计高 Euro NCAP 评分和 BA 在减少伤害方面的综合效果。
方法
在当前研究中，将 Euro NCAP 行人评分与 2003 年至 2010 年期间在瑞典发生的行人事故的实际结果进行了比较。实际事故数据来自瑞典交通事故数据采集系统（STRADA），该系统结合了警方记录和医院入院数据。医疗数据包括国际疾病分类（ICD）诊断和损伤严重程度评分（AIS）。共有约 500 名行人被送往医院接受治疗，纳入了研究。为每个汽车模型根据 Euro NCAP 行人评分进行编码。此外，还为每辆参与的汽车编码了是否存在 BA。根据评分对汽车进行分组。使用 AIS 分析伤害结果，并在个体层面上使用永久性医疗损伤。这是通过将每个个体的损伤评分转换为严重后果风险（RSC）来完成的，风险水平分别为 1%、5%和 10%的残疾水平。这表明了每个受害者在给定损伤的严重程度和位置时发生医疗残疾的总风险。然后为每个汽车组计算平均 RSC（mRSC），并进行 t 检验，以在 p≤.05 时否定组内 mRSC 相等的零假设。
结果
结果表明，行人评分较高的汽车的伤害严重程度显著降低，尽管由于病例不足，无法对高分汽车进行研究。与低性能汽车相比，中等性能汽车的 RSC 降低分别为 17%、26%和 38%，分别为 1%、5%和 10%的医疗损伤。这些结果适用于限速高达 50km/h 的城市地区，尽管在较高速度区域未发现显著降低。对于配备 BA 的汽车，在 p =.05 时不能拒绝零假设；因此，没有发现伤害减少的显著结果。
结论
在现实生活中车撞行人事故中，发现 Euro NCAP 行人评分与伤害结果之间存在显著相关性。随着严重程度和永久性医疗损伤程度的增加，伤害减少的幅度更高。1 星和 2 星汽车之间的差异为平均永久性医疗损伤风险（mRSC）的 17%（mRSC 1%+），26%（mRSC 5%+）和 38%（mRSC 10%+），适用于限速为 50km/h 及以下的速度区。未发现制动辅助系统在减少伤害方面具有统计学意义。
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